Dollar in Kazakhstan goes on falling because of high prices for oil

/REUTERS, Almaty, Tatiana Seroshtanova, February 28, 03/ - High prices for oil and metals - major Kazakhstan export goods - do not let hope for near changing of the formed within last two months and prevailing during the passing week tendency of violent decrease of dollar's rate relative to Kazakhstan tenge, dealers say. "Tendency of dollar's decrease is preserved. Price for oil allow exporters to sell without pondering: they very much proceeds. Besides high prices for export goods our production is also growing", - said treasurer of Alfa-bank Denis Ryltsev. According to the Government's forecasts, production of oil with gas condensate in Kazakhstan in 2003 will grow to 52.7 m tons from 47.2 m tons one year before. Tenge was growing during the whole last week, broke the level 153.0 and ended it on the level 152.29 for dollar. One weak before the border 154.0 fell. After such the violent growth of the national currency's rate the market decided to have a break and on Monday's evening started quick correction having won back 60 tiyns (kopecks) by closing of Tuesday's main session. However the falling was short- term, and on Wednesday already tenge started growing again having taken the next bastion on the level KZT152.0 for $1. National Bank's head Grigory Marchenko, commenting on the situation at the market, said on Wednesday that "on the level 152 or 151, or even 150 tenge for dollar - there is no reason for depression, experiences and there is no damage to competitiveness" of domestic industry. On Friday weighted average rate of tenge at Kazakhstan stock exchange's main session rose to 151.66 for $1 from 151.85 at previous session. Volume of trades fell to $14.97 m from $39.32 m on Thursday. Market's participants are waiting for further decrease of dollar in the beginning of spring. "In the beginning of the month new inflows of exported proceeds come as usually and these proceeds sale start", - said one of Kazkommertsbank's dealers. According to the worlds of market's participants, geopolitical instability remains the key factor. "Everything depends on prices for oil, and correspondingly on the war in Iraq: whether it will occur or not and for how long it will last", - said Ryltsev from Alfa- bank. The next week, according to dealers' words, dollar will go on fluent decreasing and may reach 151.20-151.40 tenge. According to estimations of some of them, the bottom is not seen yet. "Dollar is decreasing, or rather not decreasing - falling. Most probably, it's a long- term tendency. My forecast - weighted average rate for this year will equal to 147 tenge for $1", - said Timur Gabasov from Citibank. Last year weighted average rate equaled to KZT153.86 for dollar and for this year monetary authorities first planned 161.0, and then reexamined this forecast to 158.0. However already this week the National bank's head said tenge strengthening by five-six percents a year quite suited him. The National Bank remains the main operator at the money market, however limits influence upon the rate by smoothing abrupt fluctuations. [2003-02-28]