In first 10 months of 2002 volume of transactions at KASE reached equivalent of $17.8bn and grew 2.65 times

/IRBIS, November 4, 02/ - During the first ten months of 2002 total volume of transactions made in all sectors of the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) reached an equivalent of $17,825.5m, or KZT2,733.7bn. Compared to similar period of the last year, turnover increased 2.65 times measured in dollars and 2.77 times measured in tenges. Following is the comparative table of volumes of deals made at KASE during those periods, as well as dynamics of the turnover structure of the Exchange (in millions USD and percents). The calculation was made in terms of dollars. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- To corresponding period of 2001 -------------------------- Sector January- Trend: of KASE October Jan-Oct ------------------ Market 2002 2001 USD m % ------------------------------------- -------- ------- --------- -------- Foreign 2,164.9 1,508.4 +656.5 +43.5 Currency 12.1% 22.4% ------------------------------------- -------- ------- --------- -------- Futures 566.8 0 +566.8 Х 3.2% 0% ------------------------------------- -------- ------- --------- -------- GS (primary market and purchase-sale) 1,296.5 1,269.2 +27.3 +2.2 7.3% 18.8% , , ------------------------------------- -------- ------- --------- -------- CS (primary market and purchase-sale) 301.2 151.6 +149.5 +98.6 1.7% 2.3% ------------------------------------- -------- ------- --------- -------- REPO (CS and GS), total 13,496.0 3,799.1 +9,696.9 +255.2 75.7% 56.4% including repo on GS, direct deals 1,481.7 2,878.0 -1,396.3 -48.5 8.3% 42.7% Including auto repo on GS 11,939.4 773.8 +11,165.6 +1,443.0 67.0% 11.5% including repo on CS, direct deals 73.9 147.3 -73.5 -49.9 0.41% 2.2% Including auto repo on CS 1.10 0 +1.105 Х 0.006% 0% ------------------------------------- -------- ------- --------- -------- IFO bonds 0 5.9 -5.9 Х 0% 0.1% ------------------------------------- -------- ------- --------- -------- Promissory notes 0.023 0 +0.023 Х 0.0001% 0% ------------------------------------- -------- ------- --------- -------- TOTAL 17,825.5 6,734.3 +11,091.2 +164.7 100% 100% ------------------------------------------------------------------------- In October of 2002 the volume of deals made at the Exchange totaled $2,283.9m or KZT352.7bn and decreased relative to the previous month by 2.9% in dollars and 3.1% in tenge. Nonetheless, volume of October is the highest after September one for the whole nine-year history of KASE. Following is the table with the dynamics of the turnover of the Exchange in last 7 months, which is grouped by months and market sectors (both in KZT and USD). --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market Indica- sector tor IV-2002 V-2002 VI-2002 VII-2002 VIII-2002 IX-2002 X-2002 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- In millions of dollars -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- Foreign volume 202.2 220.0 231.0 232.1 226.6 237.9 366.9 Currency % 14.4 16.2 13.2 12.2 13.3 10.1 16.1 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- Futures volume 11.3 13.8 104.3 20.8 0.005 150.2 10.0 % 0.8 1.0 6.0 1.1 0.0003 6.4 0.4 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- GS volume 111.6 84.0 95.2 68.4 119.7 221.2 173.9 % 8.0 6.2 5.4 3.6 7.0 9.4 7.6 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- CS volume 29.1 45.3 10.0 34.6 15.0 34.9 50.5 % 2.1 3.3 0.6 1.8 0.9 1.5 2.2 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- REPO volume 1,045.8 994.0 1,306.9 1,547.8 1,340.8 1,707.7 1,682.4 % 74.7 73.2 74.8 81.3 78.8 72.6 73.7 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- IFO volume 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sec-ties % 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- Promiss. volume 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 notes % 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- TOTAL 1,400.0 1,357.1 1,747.3 1,903.8 1,702.0 2,352.0 2,283.9 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- In billions tenge -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- Foreign volume 30.9 33.7 35.4 35.7 35.0 36.8 56.7 Currency % 14.4 16.2 13.2 12.2 13.3 10.1 16.1 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- Futures volume 1.7 2.1 16.1 3.2 0.001 23.5 1.6 % 0.8 1.0 6.0 1.1 0.0003 6.5 0.5 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- GS volume 17.0 12.9 14.6 10.5 18.5 34.2 26.9 % 8.0 6.2 5.4 3.6 7.0 9.4 7.6 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- CS volume 4.4 6.9 1.5 5.3 2.3 5.4 7.8 % 2.1 3.3 0.6 1.8 0.9 1.5 2.2 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- REPO volume 159.8 152.1 200.1 238.1 206.9 264.0 259.8 % 74.7 73.2 74.8 81.3 78.8 72.6 73.7 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- IFO volume 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sec-ties % 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- Promiss. volume 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 notes % 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- --------- ------- ------- TOTAL 213.9 207.6 267.7 292.9 262.7 363.8 352.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: in GS sector only deals of the primary market and purchase and sale in the secondary market are considered; in CS sector only deals of the primary market and purchase and sale in the secondary market are considered; in REPO sector repo transactions with GS and CS are considered, including auto repo; IFO securities - bonds of the International financial organizations. The presented data is the evidence of the fact that IRBIS analysts' expectations about the further growth of stock exchange's turnover in October were not proved. Such the forecast was based on the intention of the Ministry of finance to sell through KASE on October 24 large state blocks of shares of leading metallurgical companies of Kazakhstan. However, as it was informed before, trades of October 24 were cancelled. Forecast of IRBIS agency also took into account activation of stock exchange's market in accordance with redemption on October 2 of euronotes of Kazakhstan of the second issue. Nonetheless, influence of this factor was small in September, before redemption, than after it, because investors conducted restructuring of their portfolios before the redemption. Money, which were received from the redemption, were used by them mainly out of stock exchange, because they were invested partly into international securities of Kazakhstan issuers, partly into their internal bonds while primary off-exchange floatation, and a small part - into domestic GS at auctions of the Ministry of finance and the National Bank. Nevertheless, volume of October turned out to be very high, because of significant increase on transactions with foreign currency and deals of corporate securities (CS) purchase and sale. Both things are the consequence of redemption of euronotes of Kazakhstan. Especially it should be noted that volume of CS purchase and sale in October reached 50.5 million US dollars i.e. it was the highest monthly volume of this kind of transactions in this year. If to take into account the fact that records of last year in this market's segment were achieved exceptionally due to selling by the Government of SBS of Corporation Kazakhmys OJSC at KASE and Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan out of stock exchange (it was reflected at exchange's market very mightily by way of securities redistribution before and after SBS sale), the CS turnover in October of 2002 may be considered as unexampled high. Insignificant compression of repo sector in October and significant - of GS purchase and sale, in the opinion of IRBIS specialists was also connected with redemption of Kazakhstan euronotes of the second issue. Low yield of GS, which was formed because of excess liquidity of the market, did not attract investors. These securities were purchased at primary market only in the second half of October. And "instrument of expecting" - objects of repo sector's investments - was much more actively used before redemption of euronotes. After the redemption a part of money, which are at repo market, was spent for purchasing of new securities abroad and in Kazakhstan. The outlook of exchange's transactions volume for November does not seem to be simple, for it much dependent on the wish and ability of the Ministry of finance to realize its plans to sell SBS at the stock exchange. If these plans come true, the exchange's CS market will significantly increase. If not, it is not excepted that volume of transactions at KASE will remain on the level of September and October. It is quite probable, that foreseeing the significant decrease of world prices for oil as the consequence of actions of USA, the Ministry of finance at present will not sell large state blocks and will reserve this "goods" till the time when the state budget of Kazakhstan has greater need in money than now. [2002-11-04]