U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results

/IRBIS, October 21, 02/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (more than 99% of country's all currency market). Trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous day. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trades in U.S. dollars at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM USD SPOT Session Main Additional. Evening Evening Time of trades (AST) 10:15a-11:00a 11:30a-3:30p 2:00p-6:00p 2:00p-6:00p Rate (KZT/USD) 154.45(+0.28) 154.57(+0.17) - - Volume of session (m) 0.905(-6.005) 3.320(-1.380) 0( 0) 0( 0) Bid 154.45(+0.28) 154.56(+0.20) 153.42( -) - Offer 154.46(+0.28) 154.57(+0.17) - - Number of participants 14(-4) 14(+4) 0( 0) 0( 0) ---------------------- ------------- ------------- ----------- ------------- Indicative U.S. dollar quotations in over-the-counter market in information system REUTERS at closing of KASE sessions (disregarding settlement dates) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bid 154.43(+0.28) 154.49(+0.12) 154.38(+0.01) Offer 154.48(+0.28) 154.54(+0.11) 154.43(+0.01) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: weighted average rate is given for main and evening sessions, for additional - closing rate; best ask and offer prices at closing of the trades are shown as the Exchange's quotations. US dollar market of Kazakhstan today revived. And at the main, and additional (day) session of KASE USD was quickly strengthening relative to tenge, demonstrating high potential of growth. However after closing of the stock exchange's market dollar's quotations at over the counter of KASE sharply decreased, and the day closed on the level of Friday (see the table). By the results of the day there appears impression about significant purchases of USD out of the stock exchange, and due to it dollar rate at KASE started growing too, whereas volumes were minimal. But by the evening demand came to naught that caused stabilization of stock exchange's rate and coming back of over the counter quotations to former levels. Results of conducted trades' analysis allow to assume that today dollar was growing due to importers' demand. The staff of purchasers at KASE was almost traditional. The leader here was the bank, which was only purchasing USD. At the same time, another participant, which is leading in this year according to volume of purchased at the exchange dollars, was among sellers. Another interesting event is behavior of "overnight" rates, which n the sector repo of KASE rose to 6.53% APR. Such the high cost of the shortest money was fixed at KASE half an hour ago. Money in high volumes was attracted by only one bank, though other STB made contribution too. In the formed situation the National Bank had to support short-term liquidity of STB working only for tenge lending. Behavior of "overnight" rates may be examined in two ways - as the wish of the National Bank to bring the rate to conformity with the current tenge devaluation rate (with the purpose of preventing speculation of money traders due to marked trend of USD rate) or as an objective banks' need in national currency, which was caused by fulfillment of reserve requirements in the end of the month. Taking into account the fact that lately dollar was obviously resold, IRBIS analysts prefer the first explanation. Judging on parameters of the market's closing, on Tuesday one should not expect as quick growth of dollar rate as it was today. The increased rate volatility on Monday is considered by IRBIS analysts as short-term technical correction, which the framework of which the market looks for objective level of balance after high-volume USD sales, which had been caused by high prices for oil and redemption of sovereign euronotes of Kazakhstan. Besides, there appears impression that quick USD strengthening was caused by local demand, which may be absent tomorrow. There is one more important circumstance - the fact that dollar started growing due to rather high "overnight" rates. Practice shows that such the beginning usually does not lead to development of the tendency. That is why at the morning trades on Tuesday, most probably, weighted average USD rate will equal to about KZT154.40 for dollar. [2002-10-21]