U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results

/IRBIS, September 20, 02/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (more than 99% of country's all currency market). Trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous day. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trades in U.S. dollars at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM USD SPOT Session Main Additional. Evening Evening Time of trades (AST) 10:15a-11:00a 11:30a-3:30p 2:00p-6:00p 2:00p-6:00p Rate (KZT/USD) 154.50(+0.06) 154.44( 0) 154.45(-) - Volume of session (m) 5.855(-11.615) 8.480(+6.990) 0.700(+0.700) 0 Bid 154.50(+0.06) 154.44(+0.01) 154.46(+0.03) 154.44(-) Offer 154.51(+0.06) 154.45(+0.01) 154.48(-) 154.48(-) Number of participants 1(-1) 17(+3) 8(+3) 2(+2) ---------------------- -------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- Indicative U.S. dollar quotations in over-the-counter market in information system REUTERS at closing of KASE sessions (disregarding settlement dates) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bid 154.48(+0.06) 154.44(+0.02) 154.45(+0.03) Offer 154.50(+0.02) 154.47(+0.02) 154.52(+0.05) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: weighted average rate is given for main and evening sessions, for additional - closing rate; best ask and offer prices at closing of the trades are shown as the Exchange's quotations. Results of the day allow to suppose that USD market of Kazakhstan is getting ready to go up. However it is not possible yet to call it entirely open in this direction. The main result of the day growing demand for USD of banks and their clients. Despite the fact that total volume of USD sale at KASE relative to Thursday decreased only by 20.7%, USD sellers managed to keep the market on the level, which is close to official one even without support of dollar by the National Bank. During the morning session strong demand caused increase of weighted average dollar rate relative to previous day by 6 points. It happened due to sharp decrease of USD offer volume. In the afternoon banks' clients, which were attracted by growing USD price, significantly increased sales volume. But even in this situation traders managed to keep the market in the interval 154.44 - 154.48. It is interesting that evening trades on forward terms were conducted at KASE rather actively. There appears such the impression that excessive short-term liquidity of banks causes activation of speculative component of money market. Price of the shortest money at KASE remains very low (TONIA by the results of trade = 3.94%APR) and provokes speculations. Number of dollar purchasers relative to yesterday increased and number of sellers - decreased. At this purchases and sales of USD were typical for individual banks. Currency traders, who were asked today by Reuters, expect on the next week decrease of currency inflow, and believe that demand for USD will grow for importers gradually become more active. Thus closing of the next week be on the level 154.65 - 154.70. IRBIS specialists do not tend to argue about this forecast. In their opinion, with the presence of significant decrease if USD offer the market may go higher. Demand is very high. Opening of long positions at 154.44 - 154.45 under such conditions is quite defensible. There is enough tenge at correspondent accounts and budget payments remained mainly behind. However on Monday IRBIS analysts do not expect significant increase of dollar rate. Many things will depend on the National Bank's rate, which, most probably, will not change. In this case dollar market can increase only by few points. [2002-09-20]