U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan continues to grow on redundant tenge liquidity

/IRBIS, July 08, 02/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (more than 99% of country's all currency market). Trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous day. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trades in U.S. dollars at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM USD SPOT Session Main Additional. Evening Evening Time of trades (AST) 10:15a-11:00a 11:30a-3:30p 2:00p-6:00p 2:00p-6:00p Rate (KZT/USD) 154.03(+0.26) 154.15(+0.17) - - Volume of session (m) 5.480(+0.955) 2.485(-0.535) 0 0 Bid 154.05(+0.23) 154.12(+0.18) - - Offer 154.06(+0.23) 154.15(+0.17) - - Number of participants 18(+1) 15(+2) 0 0 ---------------------- ------------- ------------- ----------- ------------- Indicative U.S. dollar quotations in over-the-counter market in information system REUTERS at closing of KASE sessions (disregarding settlement dates) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bid 154.01(+0.22) 154.11(+0.19) 154.10(+0.15) Offer 154.06(+0.20) 154.16(+0.19) 154.18(+0.13) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: weighted average rate is given for main and evening sessions, for additional - closing rate; best ask and offer prices at closing of the trades are shown as the Exchange's quotations. Day results show that no changes in conjuncture of Kazakhstan US dollar market happened. Sellers of American currency are able to make daily growth of Exchange dollar price at 16-17% APR for the last 12 days. For the last 5 days this figure reached even 30% APR. As a result devaluation spped of tenge to US dollar in the current year on weighted average rate of the main session reached 3.98% APR. Main factor that causes such situation is still redundant tenge liquidity of the market. For some reasons NBK hasn't made any active steps in direction of sterilization of corp.-accounts of STB. Repo rates grow symbolically. Due to it short-term liquidity of banks can be supported on repo floors by money of pension funds and PAMC with acceptable price. However there is no need in it. For several days banks generally offer "excess" money. It is obvious that along with objective demand on dollars from the side of importers there exists speculative one. Traders try to use grown speculative attractiveness of American currency. In their turn, sellers of USD feel conjuncture of the market and openness to growth. Thus, appear of even large portions of exporters' currency receipts, as it was today, cannot stabilize the market. Sellers show their incompliance and hold sale with growing price. All mentioned above leaded to the fact that during the day dollar rate was growing with the speed similar to one of last days, and the market again closed with growth. Examining of all available to IRBIS analysts market sectors for analysis doesn't allow indicating symptoms of dollar over- purchasing and market overheating. From this it follows the conclusion that on Tuesday traders will be able to open morning trades highly and lead the rate to at least KZT153.14 per dollar, but, more likely, even higher. An impression is made that only NBK can stabilize the market using either direct interventions or changing repo rate "corridor". So far there were no such actions observed from the side of the leading operator. [2002-07-08]