U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan more confidently looks upward

/IRBIS, March 28, 02/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstan market for U.S. dollar (more than 99% of country's all currency market). Trends are shown relative to corresponding figures of previous day. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trades in U.S. dollars at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Instrument USD TOD USD TOD USD TOM USD SPOT Session Main Additional. Evening Evening Time of trades (AST) 10:15a-11:00a 11:30a-3:30p 2:00p-6:00p 2:00p-6:00p Rate (KZT/USD) 152.47(+0.09) 152.48(+0.10) - - Volume of session (m) 5.850(+2.365) 0.955(-0.045) 0 0 Bid 152.46(+0.05) 152.44(+0.04) 152.45(-) - Offer 152.48(+0.03) 152.48(+0.04) 152.70(-) - Number of participants 19(+2) 9( 0) 3(+3) 0 ---------------------- ------------- ------------- ----------- ------------- Indicative U.S. dollar quotations in over-the-counter market in information system REUTERS at closing of KASE sessions (disregarding settlement dates) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bid 152.44(+0.06) 152.43(+0.06) 152.44(+0.07) Offer 152.49(+0.06) 152.48(+0.06) 152.49(+0.07) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: weighted average rate is given for main session, for additional - closing rate; best ask and offer prices at closing of the trades are shown as the Exchange's quotations the best prices for ask and bid at the closing of trades are given. Especial feature of a day at the exchange US dollar market was a growth o the trades' volume. At that it took place not only as result of USD supply increase by second tier banks as it was recently but due to increase of demand. This demand was monopolized to a small degree that means it was objective. On this demand dollar today was winning out from tenge points. Only substantial volume of USD at the beginning of the day session (three deals at $200-$300 th. each) was able to temporarily "press" the market to 152.43. However putting off this "load" has led American currency rate to 152.48 by the end of the trades. By the day results the demand looked stronger than a week ago. Taking into account that April is coming - traditional time for the importers activation - it could be said about serious premises for devaluation speeding up. It is shown also by a noticeable growth of speculative component in the traders' behavior. However, the day has brought another impressions. Current level of tenge devaluation in 2002 is estimated with a speed of 4.1% APR. It is higher than for the whole last year (3.82%) despite a stability of tenge in March. Forecasts of the National Bank for the year 2002 on devaluation are 3-4%, at the level of 2001. From specified data it is expected that there is no "reserve" of tenge devaluation rate. The same is aid by a situation with trade balance of Kazakhstan, which is according to the forecasts of the Government will decline in 2002 to $300-500m (in 2001 it was +$816m). An exceeding of import growth rates over export growth rates will create a certain relation between demand for dollar and its supply in domestic market. And it will not be in favor of tenge. Mentioned data might mean that the central bank will resist dollar rate growth with a high speed that reached one. And today is a proof of that. Therefore, on the one hand, the dollar market now looks more confidently upward but on the other hand, dollar rate hardly will grow faster. On Friday IRBIS analysts assume further weakening of tenge with approximately same speed as on Thursday. [2002-03-28]