U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results

/IRBIS, March 30, 00/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstani market for U.S. dollar (more than 98% of country's all currency market). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US dollar trades at the Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) -------------------------- -------------- ------------- ----------- ----------- Instrument USD TOM USD TOM USD TOM USD SPOT Session Main Additional. Evening Evening Time of trades (ALM) 10:15-11:00 11:30-15:30 14:00-18:00 14:00-18:00 Weighted average rate 141.97(+0.12) Not indicated - - Volume of the session(mln) 9.785(+7.205) 2.250 0 0 Ask 141.95 141.83 - - Bid 141.97 141.88 141.92 - Number of participants 18 11 1 1 -------------------------- -------------- ------------- ----------- ----------- Indicative US dollar quotations in the interbank market in the information system REUTERS at KASE sessions closing (disregarding settlement dates) -------------------------- -------------- -------------- ---------- ----------- Ask 141.94 141.84 141.85 Bid 141.97 141.90 141.89 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: Best bid and ask prices at closing of the trades are shown as the Exchange quotations. By indicative interbank quotations of the dollar in REUTERS information system, tenge gained 3 points in comparison with previous day closing on demand and 9 points on supply of the American currency. Anticipating scheduled for today inflow of funds to their correspondent accounts after the repayment of SS the banks of the second tier got quickly active in the morning session of KASE, demonstrating rare unity in buying the American currency. However, not only the repayment of SS was the reason for such friendly aspiration to invest into dollars and even no the repayment of SS itself. The decision of OPEC to increase oil production and subsequent noticeable decrease in prices of the most popular blends at leading trade floors of the world - IPE and NYMEX - switched devaluation expectations of professional participants of Kazakhstani market to a new level. From now on when the world oil prices change Kazakhstani banks will expect its consequences within the country, no matter what officials would say. Expected growth in tariffs on railroad transportation and oil pumping through the pipelines on the territory of Kazakhstan, change in electricity tariffs (as the power suppliers say a flexible scheme beneficial to local consumers will be used here), added to the negative news. In IRBIS specialists' opinion, it was these reasons that increased the pressure of tenge on the exchange rate of USD in currency circulation sector. But the conjuncture changed in the afternoon. Without expected growth rate of the dollar during the morning trades (actually, dollar was falling throughout the session due to the sales of mainly one bank) dealers seem to reconsider their attitudes and found investments into MEKAVM more reasonable. As a result, day session of KASE was very active. Traders were getting rid of dollars they bought in the morning, this time by using the presence of the market-maker of USD on the trade floor who is responsible for maintaining constant purchasing quotations. The latter was not in the best position. Throughout additional session it had to "collapse" the market fearing to buy too expensive currency. Indicative interbank quotations did go down as well, but not that fast as it happened at the Exchange. As a result, almost of repayment volume of previously issued SS was tied up to the dollars or to MEKAVM-6 (mainly), or partially to notes of the National Bank. Forward trades were sluggish as uncertainty even for tomorrow did not let the traders to make deals. Overnight rates and repo rates at KASE did not register a growth in the cost of money notwithstanding the apparent limitations in their mass. After analyzing the results of the day the National Bank probably decided to "squeeze" the correspondent accounts of the banks and announced very short notes-28 for Friday. The purpose is to neutralize the money that will remain after KZT2.4 bln by the evening of Friday and stabilize the conjuncture of currency market. Therefore, it can be assumed that on Friday the banks will not be able to raise the dollar market again. Firming of tenge by some points during the main session of KASE seems to be quite possible.