U.S. dollar market of Kazakhstan: day results

/IRBIS, Feb.21, 00/ - Following is the table of major indicators of Kazakhstani market for U.S. dollar (more than 98% of country's all currency market). ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- US dollar trades at the Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) ----------------------- ------------- ------------- ----------- ----------- Toll USD TOM USD TOM USD TOM USD SPOT Session Main Additional. Evening Evening Time of trades (ALM) 10:15-11:00 11:30-15:30 14:00-18:00 14:00-18:00 Average weighted rate 140.16(+0.23) Not indicated - - Volume of session (mln) 9.990(+6.465) 0 0 0 Demand price 140.14 - *140.10 *140.10 Supply price 140.16 - *140.14 *140.14 Number of participants 16 2 4 4 ----------------------- ------------- ------------- ----------- ----------- Indicative US dollar quotations in the interbank market in the information system REUTERS at KASE sessions closing (disregarding settlement dates) ----------------------- ------------- -------------- ---------- ----------- Demand price 140.11 140.09 140.11 Supply price 140.16 140.15 140.14 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: Best bid and ask prices at closing of the trades are shown as the Exchange quotations. In case of absence of such in the trade system of KASE, the last quotations marked by stars are given (in this case, for USD_TOM - at 16:30PM, for USD_SPOT - at 17:30PM). By indicative interbank quotations of the dollar in REUTERS information system, tenge lost 11 points in comparison with previous day closing on demand and 4 points on supply of the American currency. Today the market received an impulse from 10 point growth of the official rate of USD. In some dealers' opinion, it caused the morning session at KASE to open strong, but no more. During the session tenge remained stable, and the demand was completely balanced by the supply. Poll of the dealers did not give unambiguous picture. Referring to high liquidity of all sectors of the financial market, traders are not inclined to consider current situation a formation of a steady trend of the dollar exchange growth. Exchange rate arbitrage is still their preferred answer. The real market, in their opinion, is interesting with this. At the same time, the dealers believe that lately the National bank is "pushing up" the exchange rate of the dollar at a steady pace (less than in the morning session today). It is done mainly on interbank market, and moreover, not only in the currency market. By doing this, the head bank of the country is creating a reserve before summer, when due to seasonal factors tenge will be stable, or it may get even stronger. The inflation will remain at that, and resulting devaluation should match it. Calculations show that from the beginning of the year the dollar grew at average of 9.2% APR. It is about the same figure the government wants to get by the results of the year. Considering that the National Bank is not interested in sharp fluctuations of USD price that may bring about extraordinary situations on the market, assumptions of the dealers regarding the tactics of the head bank seem to be justified. For this reason, some dealers believe the exchange rate will not go below 140 tenge, though some technical correction is possible in the near term. Growth in interbank "overnight" tenge quotations up to 12/15% APR is explained by the dealers not by the deficit of funds (it does not exist), but they explain it by matching the quotations with the yields of short SS on the secondary market. The latter rose somewhat due to firming of the dollar on Friday and Monday. Based on the facts mentioned above, IRBIS specialists do not expect a significant dynamics of the exchange rate in the morning session on Tuesday. Some firming of the tenge is more likely at that.