At KASE USD market conjuncture changes

/IRBIS, Jan.18, 00/ - The morning trades in US dollar, Deutsche mark and Euro were held at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) with TOD payment terms. 20 banks participated in the trades. Today the trades in US dollars opened at 139.63 tenge per unit. Total of 85 deals were made. Weighted average dollar exchange rate equaled to 139.56 (-0.04) tenge per unit. Volume of the session - $2,345 mln (-$2,205 mln). Exchange rate fluctuation during the trade - 0.06%. The trades were closed at 139.54/59 tenge per dollar. Today the market conjuncture changed. Demand of the banks and their clients decreased and supply grew. IRBIS analysts propose one of two reasons for the change in the market conjuncture. The first is the growth in official rate of the dollar on Monday, which had an impact on the trades as 24 point growth in USD rate of the Exchange. As interbank quotations showed in the afternoon on Monday, the market did not accept such growth rate of USD, and today banks are "taking a rest", unwilling to buy expensive dollars. If this is the main reason, then exchange rate of the dollar may resume its growth on Thursday already, and the activity of the banks will be restored. The second reason - saturation of the country's market with cash and non- cash dollars, which was caused by active USD purchases of the banks at KASE and purchases of cash dollars by the population in remote regions of the country in first two weeks of the year. Daily shrinkage of the monetary base through USD sales of the National Bank at the Exchange and regular borrowings in SS placement sector forced the purchasing power of the market subjects. Demand for dollars began to lower, which was apparent in the afternoon on Monday and today on KASE trades. If this concept, more preferable to IRBIS specialists, is believed to be true, then it seems as if the market found its new equilibrium level, and the consequences of December increase in the monetary base and mass are eliminated. Today demand was moderate, but was created by 10 traders, which is unusual lately. Two participants were offering dollars for sale in big quantities, and it is likely that one of them was selling exporters' earnings. Speculative component in dealers' behaviors significantly increased. Change in the exchange rate of the dollar was not tendentious: USD was traded in quite a wide price range 139.55 - 139.58 tenge per unit. The market was volatile and thin. It has been more than adequately emphasized by big spreads in closing quotations. One hour after closing of the morning session on interbank market of Kazakhstan dollar was quoted at 139.59/65 tenge per unit, two hours later - 139.57/64. In the day session of KASE with TOD payment terms at 1:00PM the dollar was at 139.59/64. Deutsche mark, morning session, TOD: no deals. Closing demand - 72.20 tenge for mark, no offer. Euro, morning session, TOD: no deals. Closing quotations - 140.90/141.50 tenge for euro.