USD/KZT at the day closing - 137.90/99 (indicators)

/IRBIS, Dec.20, 99/ - According to REUTERS at the closing of the interbank exchange market of Kazakhstan on December 20 tenge quotations towards U.S. dollar have made 138.05/15 tenge for dollar. Judge by the quotations, tenge in comparison with the previous day closing has lost 15 points on demand and 16 points on supply. It is the first dollar increasing outside of Exchange for the last two weeks. On the main (morning) session the dollar average weighted rate under the TOD accounts has made 137.99 (-0.02) tenge for dollar at closing quotations of 137.99/138.00. There were no dollar quotations at the closing of additional day time session under the TOD accounts as well as at the closing of evening trades with TOM and SPT accounts. In contrast to yesterday's trades, the interbank dollar quotations grew today both on demand and on supply. The spreads increased along with quotations and at the last hours they reached of 10 points. The reasons of the dollar quotations stable growth remain unknown for the IRBIS' experts. The unique factor, which theoretically can influence the rate - today's redemption of the Euronotes of first issue by Kazakhstan. Some professional market participants stated in September, that it would be favorable to the Ministry of Finance to reduce the dollar rate till December 20 and that after this date dollar should grow. But nobody constrained the dollar growth during the last three months. Within this time the National Bank rather restrained the tenge strengthening. It is possible, that the currency traders are still impressed by the mentioned opinion and it has effected their behavior today. Judging by the market objective indicators there are no real reasons to the sharp change in the exchange rate. It is enough of dollar on the operators' accounts, and dollar demand remains low. Therefore IRBIS' experts do not expect tomorrow any principal changes in the exchange rate dynamics. Considering parameters of today's market closing, it is possible to assume that dollar on Tuesday can increase by some points on KASE. The market is equilibrium and the probability of differently directed oscillations is rather great. However sharp as well as long dollar strengthening is hardly possible now.