ANALYSIS: the market has believed in stable tenge - analysts of IRBIS

/IRBIS, Oct. 29, 99/ - Results of this week on the exchange market of Kazakhstan has appeared very similar to that of the previous week. Volume of trades insignificantly decreased, and the speed of tenge strengthening against dollar remained practically constant: 12.4% p.a. compared to 10.3% p.a. in the previous week. In opinion of the IRBIS analysts, the most interesting feature is absence of influence on the dollar rate of the large sum of State Securities redemption at the insignificant volume of drawing on the market of internal debt. The free money redundancy has not caused, as usual, the dollar growth. Sellers' attempts to speculate for the dollar rise did were unsuccessful. The main conclusion of week: the market has believed in a stable tenge. The dealers expectations of the short-term devaluation have decreased. The results of the market analysis do not allow to reveal the objective reasons of this phenomenon. The National Bank did not render essential pressure on the market rate changes. The dollar prices developed under an objective supply and demand ratio. It is necessary to agree with opinion of the Chapter of the National Bank, that the true dollar price in Kazakhstan aspire to an objective level of 138 -139 tenge per unit. Even the soon cancellation of obligatory sale of half of exporters' hard currency earnings on KASE (in IRBIS experts' opinion, it will happen at the end of November - beginning of December) has caused an dollar demand escalation on growth of its rate. The experts of IRBIS do not exclude influence of the Grigory Marchenco authority on the dealers behavior. Therefore it is risky today to open the long positions for dollar. Taking into account, that the beginning of the new month can cause an increase of dollar sale by the exporters, an assumption that in the next week US dollar market will remain stable and tenge will somewhat increase, looks quite justified.