ANALYSIS: growth of dollar rate is probable only at the end of the next week - IRBIS

/IRBIS, Oct.15, 99, Andrey Tsalyuk/ - This week of the republican exchange currency market has passed quietly and without any essential difference in the set of rates forming factors in comparison with previous week - despite of elections and appointments in the government. Perhaps, the main news it appointment of Grigory Marchenko as the Chapter of the National Bank. This news was unequivocally positive accepted by the market. Other assignments in the top echelons of authority were not so interested for the professional market participants. Destiny of Uraz Dzhandosov - figure, which influence on the financial policy of country was difficult to overestimate - remains unknown. Any authentic information concerning his appointment is absent. The main rate forming factor of the week is constraint of banks in the free means caused by their customers quarter budget payments. Under influence of this factor the dollar rate has been decreasing during the week with short- term corrections. Such conclusion is confirmed by the extremely active trades in KASE' repo sector, by small volumes of drawing on the State Securities placement auctions and by constant high cost of short money for the last time. In opinion of the IRBIS experts, obligatory sales of the exporters' proceeds on KASE did not influence the exchange rate so strong, as it was in the last week. At the same time this factor still be main factor for forming of the long- term tendency. Volume of the dollar supply remained significant, to what the high volumes of trades testify, and, with rare exception, this supply was not been counterbalanced by demand. The National Bank could not help using such an advantage. Most likely, this week the money base of country will grow again, and it is very important for the forecast for the following period. The final day of period has shown, that the State Securities redemption, because of it's small volume, did not essentially influence the tenge market liquidity. The action of this factor to the quotations was rather psychological. At the last hours before the Friday's market closing dollar did not manage to become stronger. The results of the analysis conducted by IRBIS, allow to assume, that to the middle of the next week (including Wednesday) the dollar rate will continue to decrease under influence of tenge deficiency. The tenge revaluation rate will hardly exceed present level (45.4% p.a. for the last 7 days), that is explained by money base growth during last two days. Second half of the next week will be characterized by very large volume of State Securities redemption - 4.430 billion tenges. It is almost twice more, than in this week. Considering growing money base, it is possible to assume that the dollar demand will be completely reanimated on Thursday and Friday, and the banks will be able to begin the restoration of its currency positions. Furthermore, as statistical data show, volume of the exporters' proceeds sale will be reduced toward the end of a month. Thus, the experts of IRBIS consider that the second half of next week will be characterized by the dollar rate growing. It is too difficult to evaluate the resulting change of USD/KZT market rate in the end of the next week.