One more time about Kazakhstan euronotes of the third issue - Euroweek
14.10.99 00:00
/IRBIS, Oct.14, 99, based on information of "Euroweek"/ - On October 1
"Euroweek" - a weekly issue devoted to international market of capitals -
published an article "Kazakh blow-out reopens emerging dollar markets".
In IRBIS analysts opinion, some conclusions of this review are of interest in
terms assessment of the third issue of the republic's sovereign debt
placement.
We'll remind that the issue received ISIN XS0102764031 on the euromarket
(Reg. S), code US486661AC56 in USA (Reg. 144A) and was placed for five
years via ABN Amro and Deutsche Bank for $200 mln. Circulation will start
on October 18.
Euronotes have a coupon rate of 13.625% paid out semiannually, 13.946%
APR, and spread 825 base points over Treasuries with issue price 98.87%
and a wide range of offer between 800-825 base points.
Deal was rated B1/B+/BB- in London and actually meant Kazakhstan's return
to the Euromarket after a two year break. The issue became the first among
CIS countries since before the Russian crisis in August 1998.
Experts believe, that Kazakhstan's success became a boost to other
emitters from emerging markets, which were barred from major dollar
markets in 1999. Investors shied away from investing their money in
eurobonds of emerging markets when Latin and Eastern Europe countries
were drifting between crises.
"We are pleased that Kazakhstan has been able to access the Euromarkets
and demonstrate that single-B sovereigns still have access to international
debt funding," said Peter Schikaneder, director of debt origination at
Deutsche Bank in London. "We feel that Kazakhstan had a clear and
credible credit story to tell and that investors have recognized that fact."
Reid Payne, global head of emerging market syndicate at ABN Amro in
London, said: "With this issue Kazakhstan has been able to successfully
differentiate itself from most of its neighbors and to achieve a landmark
financing in a marketplace characterized by a lack of depth and susceptibility
to event risk news." He added: "Kazakhstan has capitalized on its strong
economic fundamentals, based on healthy levels of foreign direct
investment, responsible fiscal discipline and rising commodity prices."
Relative to other comparable deals, issue of Kazakhstan gives 15 base
points higher than Brazilian bonds (11.625% April 2004) trading at 810 bp
over Treasuries. While Turkey had an 8.875% May 2003 deal and a 9.875%
February 2005 transaction trading at 500bp and 600bp over Treasuries
respectively. Syndicate members said that since both Brazil and Turkey are
more frequent issuers with better established investor bases, it was
appropriate that Kazakhstan should have paid a pick-up over their dollar
offerings.
Although on an historical basis the pricing on this week's issue was
expensive for Kazakhstan, market participants said that the fact the country
had been able to tap the Euromarkets at all was more significant than the
relative cost. For the Kazakh authorities, the completion of this week's dollar
issue represents a vote of confidence in economic management policies
which have saved the country from the financial chaos afflicting most of the
country's neighbors. It also marks a satisfying end to a protracted issuance
process.
It was mentioned earlier that lead-managers of the project tried to place
bonds in "euro zone". However, these plans should not have to come true,
since rising concerns over prospective debt defaults by the likes of Ecuador
and Ukraine narrowed the potential investor base for lesser rated emerging
market sovereigns.
In September the leads decided to change funding officials on a roadshow to
the US, where they proved successful in drumming up support for an
institutionally targeted Euro/144A dollar issue. ABN and Deutsche, which
distributed $180m or 90% of the transaction, reported that the vast majority
of their bonds were placed with institutions in Europe and US - split roughly
60% and 40% respectively - but that there had also been some interest
from Asian accounts.
As well as demand from holders of Kazakhstan's previous dollar Eurobonds,
the lead managers said the issue had also succeeded in attracting new
investors.
The leads are also confident of a continued strong secondary market
performance based on the expectation that Kazakh pension funds, which are
major holders of the country's $200m 9.25% three year offering from
December 1996, will roll over their holdings into this week's new issue when
that bond matures in December.
The article given an information that Romania (rating B3/B-/B-) is currently
preparing to launch EUR150-EUR200 mln three year euro issue via
Deutsche Bank and Merrill Lynch. Unofficial price talk suggests that the euro
issue will feature a 15% headline coupon and discounted issue price to give
a yield in the region of 17%-18%.
"Euroweek" informs that at Thursday's closing in London the issue of
Kazakhstan euronotes were traded at 99.0/99.5% with 813/800 bp over
Treasuries.
IRBIS notes: according to ISMA, today on international market Kazakhstan
eurobonds of the third issue are traded at 99.12/99.50%.