USD/KZT on closing of a day - 141,15/35 (indicators)

/IRBIS, Oct.13, 99/ - According to REUTERS, at the moment of October 13 Kazakhstan's OTC-market closing tenge/dollar quotations has made 141.15/35 tenge per dollar at the average weighted exchange rate of 141.63 (-0.34) and session closing quotations of 141.48/50. By the dealers interbank quotations, tenge as against of the previous day closing increased by 69 points on demand and by 53 points on supply. Spreads of the interbank quotations varied from 6 to 20 points at average 12. At insignificant changes of maximum and minimum, the average day has grown twice in comparison with the yesterday's. The overnight interbank tenge deposits rates grown essentially as against to the yesterday's and at the market closing made 18% p.a. (demand) / 28% p.a.(supply). Significant volume of dollar supply testifies that banks are short in tenge. The dealers note that the tenge deficiency forces banks "to shorten" the currency positions. In opinion of the IRBIS's analysts, the banks have problems with short-term liquidity in connection with the quarter budget payments of their customers. The observed tenge deficiency shows, first of all, that tenge received by the market during the summer through the exporters' currency earnings buying by National Bank, in the autumn were attracted by the sector of real economy. Probably, it was promoted by growth of the world prices of oil and other Kazakhstan export's main articles. Therefore it is possible to speak, that current tenge stabilization is to some extent stipulated by the economic reasons, not only by currency market sterilization by the National Bank. Replacement of the National Bank's Chairman and new appointment in the government of Kazakhstan were mirrored by in wait-and-see attitude of the market participants. Many of them suppose an opportunity of changes of the National Bank policy. By the all market technical indicators, tenge on tomorrow's trades will strengthening against US dollar. The short-term banks' liquidity will begin to restore only by Thursday's evening under influence of State Securities redemption. However, in view of insignificant volume of this redemption (1,427.7 million tenges), we can hardly expect tenge surplus even on Friday.