USD/KZT at day closing - 140.10/55 (indicators)

/IRBIS, Sep.28, 99/ - According to REUTERS, at closing of interbank currency market of Kazakhstan on September 28 tenge quotations towards US dollar have made 140.10/55 with the weighted average market's price of 141.09 (+1.53) and the quotes at closing of session of 140.95 / 141.00. Compared to the results of the previous day tenge against US increased by 110 points on demand dollar and 105 points on supply. The spreads of the interbank quotations varied from 15 to 45 points at average - 21 - twofold decreasing against last day. From 3:00 p.m. Almaty time dollar quotations in the OTS market went down unidirectional. The rates of tenge overnight interbank deposits were at the day closing 25% p.a. (demand) and 45% p.a. (supply), that confirms dealers' opinion that there are no free money on the bank's accounts. The average real rates of short money, by results of trades in sector repo on KASE: 26.0% p.a. for a day and 15.0% p.a. for three days. Is remarkable, that money were attracted by one of the most active operators of the exchange market. All indicators testify about market "overheating". There is an impression, that the dealers have given back the last money on exchange trades and now try to restore the banks short-term liquidity. The operators mark, that after dinner supply of dollars in the OTS market unequivocally exceeded demand. The sale of dollars was also promoted by some positive news: placement of the third issue of Euronotes, and, which is more important, acceptance of project of the budjet-2000. Also, additional information about the Euronotes placement shown, that under current circumstance the loan conditions were not so bad. Second half of day passed in an atmosphere of sharp weakening of the intensity. The National Bank even modified downwards yesterday's forecast concerning price of dollar in the end of year. All dealers working today on KASE, assume an active participation of the National Bank - as the dollar seller. The actions of head bank successfully coincided with influence of positive news and in the evening it is possible to speak about change of the dollar rate trend. The banks started to sale dollar. In opinion of the IRBIS analysts, the forecast for Wednesday is rather clear: the rate of dollar will decrease as a result of small banks solvency (which was additionally lowered by today's MEKAVM -6 auction on the sum of $5.0 million). Dollar weakening will be stipulated also by positive the psychological factors. It is possible, that the dollar rate decrease happens on Thursday. However, hereinafter IRBIS analysts can not share optimism of the National Bank concerning decreasing of the dollar rate till the end of a year. By the second half of Friday the solvency of the main operators of the market will be restored completely, and demand for dollar will, probably, rise. Bureau de change will receive a peoples' salary. And beginning of a new quarter will result in the additional resources appearance. Much will depend on the National Bank behavior at the placement of short- term notes. If the head bank will offer to bank of the second tier an acceptable yield, volume of the week's unordinary State Securities redemption will be neutralized, and free money of the operators again will leave the currency sector.