USD/KZT at day closing - 141.20/60 (indicators)

/IRBIS, Sep.27, 99/ - According to REUTERS, at closing of interbank currency market of Kazakhstan on September 27 tenge quotations towards US dollar have made 141.20/60 with the weighted average market's price of 139.56 (+0,50) and the quotes at closing of session of 140.00/10. Compared to the results of the previous day tenge lost 165 points on demand against US dollar and 155 points on supply. The spreads of the interbank quotations varied from 20 to 100 points at average - 50. The rates of tenge overnight interbank deposits changed from 10/25% in the morning to 15/35% in the noon and to 8/28% at the day closing. The current trends of devaluation remain very high, except a day time trend, which decreased in comparison with Friday's: day - 43.6%, week - 133%, month - 65% p.a. In opinion of the IRBIS analysts, the very fast growth of the dollar rate in the interbank market afternoon was forced by the information about rejection of the buget-2000 by Parliament on Saturday. Through this rejection Kazakhstan loss automatically an opportunity to receive the IMF credit on the sum of $345 million. As the Prime minister of Kazakhstan Nurlan of Balgimbaev declared on the Saturday's meeting of Parliament, before the end of a year the republic should pay about $500 million on external drawing. The final decision will be made on the Tuesday's voting. But even If the Government will be defeated in Parliament, the last decision will be made by the President. By the afternoon interbank quotations, the dealers evaluated situation as critical, capable to result in the avalanche fall of tenge. At night REUTERS transmitted the conception of Iskander Beisembetov, the Vice-president of the National Bank: "the main wave of devaluation of the national currency has passed, and to the end of the year the smooth decrease of the exchange rate to 149.00-149.50 tenge per dollar is expected". It is difficult to overestimate effect of this comment on the tomorrow's market. As well as it is difficult to overestimate the information about placement of the third Kazakhstan Euronotes issue on the sum of $200 million. Money will be attracted despite of difficult drawing conditions. News are obviously positive and are capable to help to stabilize the market. The analysts of IRBIS suppose an opportunity that on Tuesday some banks under this news influence will begin fixation of the profit of their long positions. After some last days they have high potential of yield. The nerves can break down, and the sale will begin. Even those, who held dollar in hope for the further growth, can begin to sell it. The volumes of trades in the last days were small that testifies about wait-and-see attitude of the majority. The sale is capable to result in essential prevalence of supply over demand and in decrease of the dollar rate. At the same time it is necessary to note, that the figures named by the Prime minister testify: the real situation remains dificult even after placement of the third Euronotes issue. At the existing foreign exchange reserves the National Bank could not to block for a long time the grow of a dollar rate - in case of agiotage demand, which is usual in the end of a year. Summarizing, the IRBIS analysts abstain from the concrete forecasts for the nearest days. There are approximately equal probability of: - further fast increasing of dollar, - short-term reductions of it on Tuesday and Wednesday (after which dollar will fast make up for lost), - stabilization of the market under influence of administrative measures, to which the National Bank can resort in the near future. For now IRBIS has not information about preparation of a such measures.