USD/KZT at day closing - 136.45/65 (indicators)

/IRBIS, Sep.21, 99/ - According to REUTERS, at closing of the interbank currency market of Kazakhstan on September 21 tenge / dollar quotations have made 136.45/65 tenge per dollar at an average weighted exchange rate of 136.33 (+0.25) and closing quotations of Exchange's session of 136.37/40. By the interbank dealers quotations, tenge as against to the previous day closing lost 29 points on demand and 39 points on supply. The spreads of the interbank quotations varied after dinner from 6 up to 20 points at average 14. It is high level for the last days, which testify to the dealers' uncertainty. More correct, nobody doubts in the further strengthening of dollar. The result of the traders interrogation (REUTERS, today) testifies: banks are in the long dollar positions and all free resources they use in a currency sector. But the valuations of future devaluation speed are various. The dealers consider that in second half of month it will be no large receipts of the exporters' proceeds on KASE. It is necessary to add to this high volume of State Securities redemption in the current week (4,779.9 million tenges, including 3,114.9 million for the National Bank notes) and great interest of the National Bank in the foreign exchange reserves increase at the expense of purchases of USD on a home market. Most likely, the Bank will not manage to attract by the new notes (even indexed) money, which were paid on Thursday's and Fridays State Securities redemption. Hence, all factors work for strengthening of devaluation expectations. Therefore, market unequivocally "looks upwards". It is only impossible to predict the National Bank actions and its restraining (by dollar intervention) potential. Some dealers waited for the active National Bank interference yesterday, some think it will happen in the end of the week. In opinion of the IRBIS' experts, there is no factor on the market today which could be capable to change sharply the currency market conjuncture. In case of absence of the exporters proceeds, it will be replaced by the National Bank dollar sale, which will compensate demand from the banks of the second tier. The current trend of devaluation will be saved, and the sharp jumps of the dollar rate in the near future are hardly probable.