USD/KZT at closing of the day - 133.30/136.30 (indicators)

/IRBIS, Sep.08 99/ - According to REUTERS, at September 08 the Kazakhstan's OTC market quotations have made 133.90/134.00 tenge per dollar with the weighted average market's price of 133.13 (+1.69) and the quotations at closing of session of 135.24/29. Compared to the results of the previous day tenge against US dollar lost 140 points on demand and 230 points on supply. The spreads of the quotations varied after dinner from 50 to 100 points at the average of 80. The dealers evaluate a situation ambiguously, supposing active participation of the National Bank in the Thursday's trades. On all visibility, this uncertainty caused an inactivity of the dollar quoting after 16:00 p.m. Almaty time (there was the only quote made in REUTERS). As a whole the banks' activity in the currency sector has grown essentially. The rate of the "short money" has increased from 1-2% to 11 % on demand, the offered overnight rate was 19% p.a. Step trend of devaluation allows to receive profit borrowing money under these rates. Taking into account results of today's trades on KASE the week's average tenge/dollar devaluation is evaluated by trend of 118.5% p.a., month's - by 27.5%. It becomes senseless to buy not indexed state securities at their current rates, and it was the tool that allowed to the National Bank to attract the customers' money from the currency sector. The results of today's note-35 placement are unknown, but the additional placement was conducted. Just now results of negotiations with IMF mission, which has finished today in Astana, came to our knowledge. Even according to the official information it is possible to make a conclusion, that the results of negotiations are far from a positive. Across-the-board agreement was not reached, and the parties have parted waiting for results of the third quarter. In opinion of the IRBIS' experts, it is the National Bank that can stop the further fall of the national currency in the nearest days. Under a saturation of overfilling of market by free tenge it is very difficult to wait for the dollar rate correction during the next two - three days. In conditions of tenge deficiency, as it was till April 05, the escalation of a demand for dollar and the fast growth of the dollar rate was followed by the fast correction. In the present conditions it can be too far to the turning point. Thus, the further events forecasting is reduced to the forecasting of the National Bank behavior at Thursday. The IRBIS experts, carrying out analogies with the events of May 27-28, estimate the National Bank intervention as possible. It is obvious meanwhile, that the exchange market will open on Thursday not below than 135.30 tenge per dollar.