USD/KZT at closing of the day - 133.90 / 134.00 (indicators)

/IRBIS, Sep.07, 99/ - According to REUTERS, at August 11 closing of over-the- counter foreign exchange market of Kazakhstan tenge quotations towards US dollar have made 133.90 / 134.00 tenge per dollar with the weighted average market's price of 133.44 (+0.81) and the quotations at closing of session of 133.55/59. Compared to the results of the previous day tenge against US dollar lost 102 points both on demand and on supply. After the trades at KASE the OTC market has shown the same trend. OTC closing quotations, as well as recently, were more than quotation of the Exchange (both an average weighted rate and price of the last transaction). The spreads after dinner varied from 8 to 20 points at average 14. By this parameter, the dealers were assured not so much. After Exchange trade closing the average tenge/dollar devaluation rate for last week was evaluated by 46.4% annual, for month - 13.7% p.a. These high parameters capable to distract investors from the state securities sector. It is possible to indicate the following reasons of devaluation acceleration. The holiday in USA has prevented the exporters to receive its foreign earnings and to sell it on KASE, therefore there was an obvious deficiency of USD there. The sharp fall of Russian rouble against US dollar started from September 01, has caused increase of demand for dollar from the Kazakhstan's importers. This factor also can be involved for explanation of the National Bank fence-sitting. The rates of tenge and rouble are synchronized. The analysts of IRBIS are remind, that the last May 27 and 28 jump of the dollar rate happened in Kazakhstan under a very similar situation. As well as now, the events coincided with the IMF session in Kazakhstan, which considers an opportunity of a new stabilization loans. Despite of the stock-jobbing, the National Bank, as well as now, did not undertake any actions for tenge stabilization. The May 28 fall of tenge was preceded, as well as now, by the Russia's dollar jump. As now, the market was heated by the news about cancellation of state securities auction (the MEKKAM-3 auction, scheduled on Monday, was not held, it is possible, that the same will happen with the National Bank note-35 auction scheduled on Wednesday). As now, before fall of tenge the volume of export earnings sale on KASE has essentially decreased. The present devaluation expectation grown in the market for a long time and caused an almost continuous and accelerated growth of the dollar rate since August 28. Now market situation is close to stress. The IRBIS' analysts are inclined to think that the exchange tomorrow will open not below than 134.0 tenge per dollar, and the banks will try to sell dollar at even more big rate. However under influence of the exporters' currency sale the growth of the dollar rate can be not so high, as today. The dealers today had the same opinion marking low activity of the market and waiting position of some participants. The more long-term forecasts could be inconsistent.