The experts of IRBIS do not expect a growth of dollar exchange rate during the current week

/IRBIS, 09.08.99/ - The experts of IRBIS do not expect change of the dynamics of tenge / dollar exchange rate during the current week. Experience shows, that resignation of the next Russia government (or, to judge by the messages of the Russian agencies, earlier planed rearrangement) do not capable to affect the Kazakhstan financial market managed today by the laconic government program. The main purpose of the program is reduction of social tension through payment of the debts to pensioners and state workers. "By-effects" of the program: - Necessity of the next credit for support of pension reform; - Satisfaction of the president requests to abandon the rigid monetarism and increase the money supply; - Rise of the National Bank external assets at the expense of purchases of dollar on a home market, decrease of the gold share in the foreign exchange reserves; - Decrease of the devaluation- indexed real yield of the earlier issued securities. According to the IRBIS opinion, the key place of the program is smooth and gradual strengthening of the tenge. It may allow to deflect the banks from the hard-currency sector towards the tenge internal debt sector and to decrease the rates of financial tools. At that the National Bank - in the NOTE market and the Ministry of Finance - in the liabilities market should work with a positive balance of net drawing, providing direct or indirect receipt of budget money. It is remarkable, that until now market operators did not support the tendency of tenge strengthening, because share of dollar in their assets was as big as it was allowed. And only in the very end of the last week the banks have started to open the short items. In these conditions the main task of the National Bank should change. The tenge revaluation rate shall not exceed 14.5-15.0% per year. Otherwise, the interests of banks of second tier will be again displaced into currency sector, and a profit will be fixed not on the long-term, but on the short-term positions. As the hard currency investment into the supershort notes looks problematic, such scenario looks as the most probable. Stated above can be illustrated by the dollar trade on Monday, when USD rate could fall significantly more, than by 0.16 tenge, and banks "were allowed" to fix the rate on the acceptable mark. Thus, the game on dollar rate growth, which was observed on Monday in the interbank market, can not be considered as serious. Today the National Bank's "safety margins" are quite large (what is flow from a ratio of real demand and supply of dollars by the banks of the second tier) to the realization of the scheduled program. According to the IRBIS analysts opinion, the nearest change of the dynamics of the dollar / tenge exchange rate is possible not earlier than end of August - beginning of September. By this time the scheduled program should decide the assigned mission, and the market will be glutted by tenge and ready to new transfer of it to dollar under rather low exchange rate.