Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for December 9, 2011

/IRBIS, December 9, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, forecasts and investment ideas for December 9, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - The external news background formed as negative for the stock of the banking sector, quotations of which may fall at 1.5 percent or more. Under pressure will be the papers of steel-makers with the downward potential of 0.5-2%. - The Friday session in Asia is under pressure of bearish mood of American sites. Market participants are disappointed that the ECB has no plans to run the printing presses for large-scale purchases of sovereign bonds. Moreover, according to unconfirmed rumors the EU could not get the support of all 27 members of the Convention on the changes of the Union. Meanwhile, China's inflation rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.2% in November against 5.5% a month earlier, which returns again waiting for a possible easing of monetary policy in the country. In Japan, GDP data for the third quarter was revised from 1.5% to 1.4% in connection with the introduction of new methods of counting. Indices Hang Seng, Nikkei, Shanghai went down by 2.6%, 1.3% and 0.6% respectively. - Today's trading in key commodity areas, obviously, will start with a new decrease in quotations - key determinant of the dynamics will be the outcome of an emergency EU summit. Trading in Asia is currently under reduce by an average of 2% - local players negatively evaluate the possibility of salvation for the European economy by means of recipes prepared by "Merkozi". - The euro/dollar in Asian trading is held near the mark of 1.34. Participants in the foreign exchange market in a stupor, and generally do not know what surprises today will bring up a European summit. It was therefore decided to wait. Meanwhile, the European financial authorities are prepared to recapitalize the banks. As it became known, according to the EBA shortage of capital is almost И 115 billion of which И 30bln are in Greek banks, И 26.17 billion - Spanish, И 15.37 billion - Italian, И 13.1 billion - German, И 7.3 billion - French, and И 6.95 billion - Portuguese. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 3.0 6.2 Buy +103.3 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 235.0 452.0 Buy +92.3 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE - 226.0 Buy - HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 5.7 13.6 Buy +138.6 HALYK BANK KASE 220.0 474.0 Buy +115.5 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE n/a 237.0 Buy +54.3 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE n/a 237.0 Buy +51.6 BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 285.0 - Neutral - -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 16.6 22.7 Hold +42 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 14,700.0 20,062.0 Hold +36 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 919.5 1,427.0 Buy +52 ENRC LSE 666.0 1,216.0 Buy +78 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This material has exclusively informative character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in present material. [2011-12-09]