Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for December 9, 2011
09.12.11 16:58
/IRBIS, December 9, 2011/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided
IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and
investment ideas for December 9, 2011.
Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" now expect negative opening of
trades on negative external background. Further, during the day,
according to analysts, the dynamics will remain negative, and
KASE index will, probably, end the day with decrease.
Analysts of BCC Invest JCS note the following events on the
local market:
- Ratings Services Standard & Poor's raised its long-term
credit ratings of the key subsidiaries of 100% state oil
company, JSC "National Company "KazMunayGas". S &
P upgraded the long-term credit ratings of oil and gas
company JSC KazMunayGas ExplorationProduction (EP
KMG, 63% owned by KMG) and operator of oil pipelines
JSC "KazTransOil" (KTO, 100% owned by KMG) - from
"BB+" to "BBB-". Outlook is "Stable". At the same time
outlook on the ratings of operator of gas pipelines JSC
"KazTransGas" (KTG, 100% owned by KMG) and its
100 percent subsidiary - gas pipeline operator JSC
"Intergas Central Asia" (AIC) was revised - from "stable"
to "positive"; rating of KTG is affirmed at 'BB'. Rating of
ICA is equated to rating of KTG. As indicated, the rating
actions reflect the expectations of S & P that the positive
impact on the performance of subsidiaries will be
provided by emergency government support due to their
strong (albeit indirect) relationship with the Government
of the Republic of Kazakhstan (BBB +/Stable/A-2). As a
result, S & P goes from the methodology of the rating
subsidiaries in the parent group to the methodology of
rating organizations concerned with the state. S & P
analysts believe that KMG EP and KTO are the key
subsidiaries of KMG and have relatively high
performance of its own creditworthiness, the agency
assess the level "bb+". S & P notes their importance to
the economy of Kazakhstan, focused on oil production,
and assesses the likelihood of extraordinary government
support to KMG EP and KTO as high. According to the
JSC "BCC Invest", the message is neutral for the stock
quotes and GDR of KMG, since it corresponds to the
expectations of market participants. JSC "BCC Invest"
reiterates the recommendation to "hold" on the shares
and GDRs of KMG with target price of 15,900 tenge per
common share and $ 18.30 per GDR.
Analysts of BCC Invest JCS expect the following
developments on international markets today:
- Russia will publish data on the monetary base and the
fiscal balance from the beginning of the year.
- in Germany at 13:00 (AST) to be published October data
on import/export, trade and balance of payments data for
Q3 2011 on labor costs, and preliminary data for
November on consumer prices. In France, at 13:45
(AST) to be published October data on industrial
production. In the UK, at 15:30 (AST) will be published
November data on producer prices, and data for October
trade balance.
- In the United States at 19:30 (AST) to be published data
for October trade balance, and at 20:55 (AST) -
Consumer confidence index from the University of
Michigan.
Analysts of BCC Invest JSC are giving the following advice
for investors in securities of issuers in internal market:
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Closing Target Potential,
Issuer Code price price % Recommen-
dation
----------------- ------- ------- ------ ---------- ---------
Kazkommertsbank KKGB 235 320 +36.17 Neutral
KKGBp 156.20 157 +0.51 Neutral
Halyk Bank HSBK 219.99 Review
Bank CenterCredit CCBN 284.99 Review
Tsesnabank TSBN 800 1,030 +28.75 Neutral
KazMunaiGaz EP RDGZ 14,700 15,900 +8.16 Hold
Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 2,190 2,440 +11.42 Hold
ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 1,604 1,900 +18.45 Buy
Kazakhtelekom KZTK 17,400 27,500 +58.05 Buy
KZTKp 12,503 8,900 -28.82 Sell
MREK MREK 1,350 1,130 -16.30 Hold
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The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer
or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. IRBIS Agency
doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material.
[2011-12-09]