Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for December 9, 2011

09.12.11 16:58
/IRBIS, December 9, 2011/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for December 9, 2011. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" now expect negative opening of trades on negative external background. Further, during the day, according to analysts, the dynamics will remain negative, and KASE index will, probably, end the day with decrease. Analysts of BCC Invest JCS note the following events on the local market: - Ratings Services Standard & Poor's raised its long-term credit ratings of the key subsidiaries of 100% state oil company, JSC "National Company "KazMunayGas". S & P upgraded the long-term credit ratings of oil and gas company JSC KazMunayGas ExplorationProduction (EP KMG, 63% owned by KMG) and operator of oil pipelines JSC "KazTransOil" (KTO, 100% owned by KMG) - from "BB+" to "BBB-". Outlook is "Stable". At the same time outlook on the ratings of operator of gas pipelines JSC "KazTransGas" (KTG, 100% owned by KMG) and its 100 percent subsidiary - gas pipeline operator JSC "Intergas Central Asia" (AIC) was revised - from "stable" to "positive"; rating of KTG is affirmed at 'BB'. Rating of ICA is equated to rating of KTG. As indicated, the rating actions reflect the expectations of S & P that the positive impact on the performance of subsidiaries will be provided by emergency government support due to their strong (albeit indirect) relationship with the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan (BBB +/Stable/A-2). As a result, S & P goes from the methodology of the rating subsidiaries in the parent group to the methodology of rating organizations concerned with the state. S & P analysts believe that KMG EP and KTO are the key subsidiaries of KMG and have relatively high performance of its own creditworthiness, the agency assess the level "bb+". S & P notes their importance to the economy of Kazakhstan, focused on oil production, and assesses the likelihood of extraordinary government support to KMG EP and KTO as high. According to the JSC "BCC Invest", the message is neutral for the stock quotes and GDR of KMG, since it corresponds to the expectations of market participants. JSC "BCC Invest" reiterates the recommendation to "hold" on the shares and GDRs of KMG with target price of 15,900 tenge per common share and $ 18.30 per GDR. Analysts of BCC Invest JCS expect the following developments on international markets today: - Russia will publish data on the monetary base and the fiscal balance from the beginning of the year. - in Germany at 13:00 (AST) to be published October data on import/export, trade and balance of payments data for Q3 2011 on labor costs, and preliminary data for November on consumer prices. In France, at 13:45 (AST) to be published October data on industrial production. In the UK, at 15:30 (AST) will be published November data on producer prices, and data for October trade balance. - In the United States at 19:30 (AST) to be published data for October trade balance, and at 20:55 (AST) - Consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. Analysts of BCC Invest JSC are giving the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in internal market: ------------------------------------------------------------- Closing Target Potential, Issuer Code price price % Recommen- dation ----------------- ------- ------- ------ ---------- --------- Kazkommertsbank KKGB 235 320 +36.17 Neutral KKGBp 156.20 157 +0.51 Neutral Halyk Bank HSBK 219.99 Review Bank CenterCredit CCBN 284.99 Review Tsesnabank TSBN 800 1,030 +28.75 Neutral KazMunaiGaz EP RDGZ 14,700 15,900 +8.16 Hold Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 2,190 2,440 +11.42 Hold ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 1,604 1,900 +18.45 Buy Kazakhtelekom KZTK 17,400 27,500 +58.05 Buy KZTKp 12,503 8,900 -28.82 Sell MREK MREK 1,350 1,130 -16.30 Hold ------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. IRBIS Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-12-09]