Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for November 21, 2011

/IRBIS, November 21, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, forecasts and investment ideas for November 21, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - Under pressure from the negative dynamics of industrial commodities are quotations of domestic raw materials issuers. At risk are Kazakhmys and KMG EP, whose shares can lose value in the amount of 0.5-1.5% on the negative dynamics of crude oil and copper. ENRC in mind the more diversified sources of income, including a broad group of industrial metals, showing good growth, retain their positions. But this does not exclude a small rebound. KASE index could fall by 0.4 - 0.8%. - Asian stock markets are under pressure from concerns over the U.S. and Europe. The indices Nikkei, Shanghai and Hang Seng today went down by 0.25%, 0.5% and 2% respectively. Investors continued to worry about the political crisis in the West, which gives the uncertainty about the future prospects of the global economy. In the U.S., a special committee failed to develop a consensus plan to reduce state expenditures by $ 1.2 trillion over the next 10 years. This requirement is part of the summer conditions increase the limit of U.S. government debt. Negative and came from Japan, where the results of October was unexpectedly recorded a trade deficit of $ 3.6 billion This pattern generally due to disruptions in production and supplies after the March earthquake and the ongoing strengthening of the yen. In China, banks are beginning to raise interest rates on mortgage loans. Standard Chartered raises rates to three-year highs. - European fears and negative dynamics of stock markets stimulate sales of Commodities. The contracts for the supply of copper on the Shanghai Stock Exchange today, down more than 1%. Oil market participants continue to close out positions in Brent, which fell down price of a barrel to $ 107.5. In recent gold fails to perform the role of risk-free asset. The cost of the metal in morning trading in Asia dropped to $1,718 per troy ounce. - The uncertainty of investors is reflected in the dynamics of the foreign exchange market, where bidders are considering further movement of the euro. Purchase by ECB and the subsequent reduction of yield of long-term state bonds of Italy, Spain and other members of the euro area can not now provide substantial support for the single currency against the background of recent news that one of the leaders of the new coalition Government of Greece does not want to acknowledge in writing its consent to the use of new tough economy measures as part of the second package of foreign aid. The country still has not received the sixth installment of the EU and the IMF to 8 billion euros. Lenders in Greece insist on receiving written assurances from the new authorities that they will fully comply with the terms of new loans. Meanwhile, the change of government after Greece and Italy, will be held in Spain, where Sunday election was held, in which victory over the Socialists won the People's Party of conservatives. However, the dollar is at risk of failure of the pressure of a special committee of Congress to provide a plan to reduce state expenditures. The euro/dollar in the Asian session went down by 0.1%, reaching the level of 1.351. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 3.0 6.2 Buy +106.7 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 234.0 452.0 Buy +93.2 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 156.2 226.0 Buy +44.7 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 5.7 13.6 Buy +138.6 HALYK BANK KASE 211.5 474.0 Buy +124.1 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 153.6 237.0 Buy +54.3 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 156.4 237.0 Buy +51.6 BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 285.0 - Neutral - -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 16.3 22.7 Hold +39 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 14,701.0 20,062.0 Hold +36 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 862.5 1,427.0 Buy +65 ENRC LSE 638.0 1,216.0 Buy +91 URANIUM ONE LSE 2.5 3.3 Buy +33 Companies with small capital KAZAKHTELECOM KASE 17,720.0 - Review - STEPPE CEMENT LSE 32.8 - Review - ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This material has exclusively informative character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in present material. [2011-11-21]