Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for November 11, 2011

/IRBIS, November 11, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, forecasts and investment ideas for November 11, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - Again, in parallel with the collapse of the auction on the local growth of quotations of securities in the majority of Kazakhstan's international markets was observed. Given the dynamics of the GDR in foreign markets, today at the KASE is expected to rise in price of shares in the banking sector, which will provide substantive support to the domestic stock index, whose value may grow in the range 0.3 - 0.8%. Among raw materials producers, we can note KMG with growth potential at 1% level. On metallurgical producers, one must act cautious because of further pressure on quotations is possible up to fixation of new attractive levels - Bullish sentiment on the euro area and the results of stock trading in New York provided the foundation for the growth of the Asian indices. Yield of 10-year bonds fell in Italy by 6.7%. In Greece, the formation of a coalition government increased optimism about the final completion of the process for obtaining the second package of financial assistance. Support the established sentiment and exerts a positive U.S. statistics. The indices Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai are growing today at 0.2%, 1.1% and 0.6% respectively. - Today's premarket for most of the assets of the commodity markets is estimated by us as a moderately positive - an essential support to players on the rise would have a positive conclusion of trading on the American session. At the same time, the uncertainty around the situation in Italy, continued despite the recent statements about the possible arrival as the new head of government of Italian economist Mario Monti (from which most market participants expect the effective steps to bring the third- largest euro zone economy from the crisis), will be exert pressure on the commodity market players still on for some time. An additional factor, support for market players to increase the oil contracts may make the situation from the perspective of technical analysis that emerged immediately after another unsuccessful attempt of "bears" to overcome the significant level of support, more recently served as impregnable bastion of the 6-month players in the fall. - Moderate risk appetite of investors' recovery stimulates the strengthening of the single European currency. EUR/USD is now increased by 0.2% to 1.363. Changing political forces in Greece (place) and Italy (expected) in a degree increases the optimism of investors about the release of the two countries from the situation. The formation of the transition from the Greek government, led by competent and at the same time, appear to have lobbied the European authorities, the Prime Minister Papademos (former vice-president of the ECB) opens the way for new lines of credit the EU and the IMF. At the same time, the market is looking forward to the resignation of Silvio Berlusconi, whose post may take a former EU Commissioner Mario Monti. Such a background of the candidate for prime minister pointed out that a possible new government will comply with the requirements of the European powers. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 3.1 6.2 Buy +98.7 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 233.0 452.0 Buy +94.0 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 156.2 226.0 Buy +44.7 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 5.8 13.6 Buy +136.5 HALYK BANK KASE 210.0 474.0 Buy +125.7 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 153.6 237.0 Buy +54.3 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 156.4 237.0 Buy +51.6 BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 300.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 17.3 22.7 Hold +31 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 14,600.0 20,062.0 Hold +37 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.02 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 907.5 1,427.0 Buy +57 ENRC LSE 672.5 1,216.0 Buy +81 URANIUM ONE LSE 2.6 3.3 Buy +27 Companies with small capital KAZAKHTELECOM KASE 17,800.0 33,825.0 Buy +90 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 33.5 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This material has exclusively informative character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in present material. [2011-11-11]