Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for November 10, 2011

/IRBIS, November 10, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, forecasts and investment ideas for November 10, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - The external news background formed extremely negative. The collapse of quotations, which is observed on the world sites, did not bypass the local auction. Will the shares of the financial sector will leaders of the fall, as is the case in international trading, is questionable in view of a stronger reaction to the external negative primary issuers. Commodities continue to fall in quotes. In this regard, we assume significant reduction in value of equity securities of steel companies and the fixation of profits on KMG EP after more than 5% growth of quotations of oil industry before the session. KASE index may fall at 1.5-2.5%. - The new wave of panic caused by an unexpected scenario for the bond market in Italy, after the U.S. led to an exodus of investors from the risk to the Asian sites. In the first place now sunk shares of financial issuers and companies focused on European exports. Quotes of HSBC tumbled more than 7.5% in response to a decline in quarterly profit by 36% and growth of non-performing assets of the bank. Japanese Daiwa Securities Group and Nomura Holdings collapsed more than 5% after Moody's has warned of a possible lowering of credit ratings on the background of the weak activity of companies in the international capital market. The indices Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai fell by 2.8%, 4.5% and 1.2% respectively. A significant reduction in the ultimate deterrent to mitigate the expectations of monetary policy in China in response to the slowdown in inflation. China's trade surplus in October rose to $ 2.5 billion to $ 17 billion, but was below the predicted $ 25 billion. - The nature of today's premarket for raw materials sites, in general, is consistent with the nature of negative expectations start of trading on the stock sites, with Asian players who started the day with a decline in average more than 2%, to fully confirm these expectations. It is clear that aggravated the problem of debt some euro zone countries requires the immediate adoption of an adequate package of measures to stabilize the markets, however, with a sober assessment of the situation, it seems quite difficult to find a real way out of this situation. - The euro/dollar is traded at yesterday's close. According to recent data, the yield of Italian sovereign bonds fixed at 7.27%. Nevertheless, some experts believe that excessive unnecessary panic in the form of significant differences in the current situation in Italy and has received assistance from the EU and the IMF of the three countries from the group PIIGS. In particular, notes the fact that Italy, unlike Greece, is experiencing liquidity problems, but at the same time remains solvent borrower. Moreover, the ECB may again resort to buying Italian bonds as long as the European authorities will not increase the size of the EFSF. On the balance, the Central Bank already has troubled bonds worth more than 200 billion euros, most of which appear to have Italian citizenship. Not clear is the fate of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who has previously noted the possibility of voluntary withdrawal from the post, but now requires the holding of elections instead of forming an interim government. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 3.1 6.2 Buy +103.3 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 240.0 452.0 Buy +88.3 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 156.2 226.0 Buy +44.7 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 5.7 13.6 Buy +138.6 HALYK BANK KASE 215.0 474.0 Buy +120.5 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 153.6 237.0 Buy +54.3 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 156.4 237.0 Buy +51.6 BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 301.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 16.8 22.7 Hold +35 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 15,194.0 20,062.0 Hold +32 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.02 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 923.0 1,427.0 Buy +55 ENRC LSE 668.5 1,216.0 Buy +82 URANIUM ONE LSE n/f 3.3 Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This material has exclusively informative character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in present material. [2011-11-10]