Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for November 10, 2011

/IRBIS, November 10, 2011/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for November 10, 2011. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" now expect negative opening of trades on negative external background. Further, during the day, according to analysts, the dynamics will be changeable, but the KASE index will, probably, end the day with decrease. Analysts of BCC Invest JCS note the following events on Kazakhstani market today: - Ratings Services Standard & Poor's revised its assessment of country and industry risks of the banking sector (BICRA) of the Republic of Kazakhstan and on this basis, Kazakhstan has transferred from group 9 to group 8. S & P conducted an analysis of the banking sector of Kazakhstan (ratings on foreign currency: BBB +/Stable/A-2; ratings on foreign currency: BBB+/Stable/A-2; national scale rating kzAAA) in accordance with updated methodology, assignment assessment BICRA. In accordance with the criteria methodology BICRA is defined as a system "designed to evaluate and compare the banking systems of different countries". BICRA analysis within each country covers the financial institutions, such as having and not having the ratings, which take deposits, make loans or combine both activities. In accordance with the gradation BICRA countries are divided into groups depending on the level of risk in their banking sectors - from group 1 (the countries with the lowest risk) to a group of 10 (the country with the highest risk). In Group 8, in addition to Kazakhstan, are Nigeria, Georgia, Lebanon, Latvia, Argentina, Bolivia and Uruguay. Assessment of the economic risk of an "8" reflects the view of S & P that Kazakhstan is exposed to high risks and violations of economic sustainability of economic imbalances, as well as extremely high credit risk in the economy (in accordance with the definitions given in the criteria). For Kazakhstan, characterized by highly concentrated structure of the economy (oil and gas industry and metallurgy account for almost half of GDP), low per capita GDP and high inflation. The level of political risk in terms of S & P, is relatively high, in particular, there is uncertainty associated with the transition of presidential power. At the same time economic growth in the medium term will remain high, as expected a significant increase in oil and gas production. S & P suggests that the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 the banking sector of Kazakhstan in the next two to three years will be significant. The current level of problem loans is estimated at S & P, about 50% of the total outstanding loans of the banking system, but the S & P expects that it will gradually decrease. The output of the S & P have imbalances in the economy of Kazakhstan is based on the sharp rise in property prices in 2005-2007 and their subsequent slightly less sharp decline. Current prices are about 50% below peak levels. One of the main reasons for the boom in real estate sector has been a rapid expansion of credit in 2005-2007. When the average annual growth in mortgage lending exceeded 50%. Despite the significant correction, S & P assumes that the economy of Kazakhstan is still a risk of price "bubbles". In the foreign trade imbalance is not observed obvious. For Kazakhstan is characterized by stable-high current account deficit through foreign direct investment. Expects S & P, the balance on current account in the short and medium term will remain positive, and the "narrow" net external debt is even more reduced. - KazMunaiGas ExplorationProduction on November 14, 2011 to announce its financial results for the nine months of 2011. The conference call for investors and analysts will be held at 18:00 (Astana time) (12:00 London time) on the same day. The data for the participation a conference call: Number of participants: + 44-20-7190-1595 The conference ID: 4487234 Link to the audio webcast will be available on the Company's website www.kmgep.kz Analysts of BCC Invest JCS expect the following developments on international markets today: - Russia is expected to publish data in international reserves data, exports, imports, trade balance and fiscal balance. - in France at 12:30 (AST) to be published data on consumer prices in October, and at 13:45 (AST) - Industrial production in September. At 13:00 (AST) will be published in Germany, data on consumer and wholesale prices in October. At 15:00 (AST) the ECB will publish a monthly report for November, and at 15:30 (AST) will be published by the European Commission forecast economic growth. At 18:30 (AST) Bank of England will publish its decision on interest rates and the level of asset purchases. - In the United States at 19:30 (AST) to be published data on the prices of imports, trade balance in September and applications for unemployment benefits, and an hour before the close of trading will be published monthly performance report of the United States . - today MMC Norilsk Nickel OJSC, Siemens AG, OGX Petroleo e Gas Participacoes SA, Deutsche Telekom AG, Zurich Financial Services AG, Repsol YPF SA, Genting Singapore PLC, European Aeronautic Defence and Space Co NV, Ivanhoe Mines Ltd, RWE AG, Kohl's Corp, Credit Agricole SA, and others will be reporting. Analysts of BCC Invest JSC are giving the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in internal market: -------------------------------------------------------------- Closing Target Potential, Issuer Code price price % Recommen- dation ----------------- ------- -------- ------ ---------- --------- Kazkommertsbank KKGB 240 320 +33.33 Neutral KKGBp 156.20 157 +0.51 Neutral Halyk Bank HSBK 215 296 +37.67 Buy Bank CenterCredit CCBN 301 Review Tsesnabank TSBN 800 1,030 +28.75 Neutral KazMunaiGaz RDGZ 15,194 15,900 +4.65 Buy Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 2,222 2,440 +9.81 Hold ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 1,622.22 1,900 +17.12 Buy Kazakhtelekom KZTK 17,800 27,500 +54.49 Buy KZTKp 12,000 8,900 -25.83 Buy MREK MREK 1,299 1,130 -13.01 Hold -------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. IRBIS Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-11-10]