Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for October 27, 2011

/IRBIS, October 27, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, forecasts and investment ideas for October 27, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - The external news background points to significant increase in stock prices on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange. The most attractive will be the securities of commodity companies, supported by a significant increase in oil and industrial metals. The leader may be KMG EP, which can add more than 1.5%. Optimistic purchase will occur for two banks - Halyk and Kazkommertsbank, quotes of which can grow at 1.5% - 3%. - Asian indices are in positive territory today after it became known that the European authorities have agreed to private holders of Greek debt to "voluntary" loss of 50% versus 21%, announced in the summer. The plan for Greece aimed at reducing the public debt of the country from today almost 160% to 120% of GDP by 2020. Bullish statistical data from the U.S. to provide additional support markets. The Shanghai and Hang Seng rising 0.4% and 1.7% respectively. Japan's Nikkei gaining 1.4%. The authorities of the country once again noted the possibility of intervention in the foreign exchange market to weaken the yen. - The euro/dollar shows steady growth, adding 0.6% and bargaining at the level 1.399. The signal of the determination of the European powers to fight the crisis together was obtained. To normalize the situation in Greece will require a minimum of 8 years, according to a plan to reduce debt of the country. Private lenders under intense pressure yet agreed to a voluntary 50% loss. Stabilization Fund will be increased from the current 440 billion to 1 trillion euro. Thus, the European authorities want to protect the region from possible contagion in the larger economies such as Spain and Italy. According to some reports, French President Nicolas Sarkozy plans to talk with the leader of the PRC on the possible participation of the China in the EFSF. Meanwhile, investors' attention is gradually switched to the U.S., where data will be published on the growth of GDP in the third quarter. - Bullish stock market dynamics is putting pressure on gold quotations that changed to $1,721 per troy ounce. Positive developments in the euro area provide support for commodity Commodities. Since copper prices are currently increasing at the Shanghai Stock Exchange at 1%. Futures, Brent crude oil increased by 2.6% to $ 111.7 per barrel. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 3.2 6.2 Buy +93.8 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 245.0 452.0 Buy +84.5 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 148.0 226.0 Buy +52.7 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 5.7 13.6 Buy +140.7 HALYK BANK KASE 210.0 474.0 Buy +125.7 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 237.0 Buy +40.7 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 171.0 237.0 Buy +38.6 BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 319.8 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 16.9 22.7 Hold +34 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 14,500.0 20,062.0 Hold +38 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.02 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 929.0 1,427.0 Buy +54 ENRC LSE 668.0 1,216.0 Buy +82 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE - n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 2.8 3.3 Buy +18 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 18,162.8 33,825.0 Buy +86 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 33.8 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This material has exclusively informative character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in present material. [2011-10-27]