Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for October 20, 2011

/IRBIS, October 20, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, forecasts and investment ideas for October 20, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - The external news background is unfavorable to stocks of commodity companies. Decline in oil and copper by more than 2% indicates possible sale of Kazakhmys and KMG EP. Quotes of the companies may fall by at least 1%. Investors are likely to give preference to financial securities. Halyk Bank shares could add 0.8-1.5%. - Complete dominance of bearish sentiment can be seen in Asian markets, the major indices losing more than 1%. Under the massive sales hit shares of mining companies against the background of a significant reduction of quotations of commodities. According to other papers there is fixation of profits after a two day rally. The indices Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai were down by 1.1%, 1.96% and 2.3% respectively. Shares of Chinese companies are under pressure from expectations of monetary tightening in China. - As it should have happened yesterday, the euro/dollar now unfolded. EUR/USD rate dropped by 0.4% to 1.37 against the backdrop of a mass exodus of investors from risky assets into safe harbor. Today in Frankfurt held an emergency meeting between the leaders of France and Germany, accompanied by the chairmen of the ECB and the IMF, where they will try to resolve the disputed issues in advance of the EU summit. The main problematic issue is the reluctance of European banks to accept large losses under the plan to rescue Greece. Voluntary participation of private creditors in the recapitalization, and in the losses can be replaced by coercive measures demanded by Germany, but opposed by France and the ECB. - Quotes of Brent are gradually restored. European futures are traded on the grade level above $ 109 a barrel. Copper contracts in Shanghai, losing about 6% on a wave of pessimism on the stability of demand for the metal industry in China. Labor strikes at mines FreeportMcMoran continue. The spot price of gold dropped to $ 1,617 per troy ounce, while technical indicators point to a possible decline below $1,600. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 3.0 6.2 Buy +106.7 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 245.0 452.0 Buy +84.5 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 148.0 226.0 Buy +52.7 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 5.6 13.6 Buy +141.3 HALYK BANK KASE 209.0 474.0 Buy +126.8 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 237.0 Buy +40.7 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 171.0 237.0 Buy +38.6 BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 329.9 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 16.0 22.7 Hold +42 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 14,299.0 20,062.0 Hold +40 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.02 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 874.5 1,427.0 Buy +63 ENRC LSE 649.0 1,216.0 Buy +87 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE n/a n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 2.3 3.3 Buy +46 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 17,900.0 33,825.0 Buy +89 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 33.3 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This material has exclusively informative character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in present material. [2011-10-20]