Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for October 18, 2011

/IRBIS, October 17, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, forecasts and investment ideas for October 17, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - The external news background formed negative for stock prices of Kazakh issuers. It will firstly affect the raw materials sector. Metallurgical securities may lose at around 1.5-2.5%. A small profit is expected to be around Halyk Bank. In general, the value of KASE can be reduced by at least 1%. - Asian indices are in deep negative territory today after the published statistical data that showed a slowdown of Chinese economy in the third quarter from 9.5% to 9.1% - the lowest in two years. Experts had expected 9.3%. Overall, the data are not negative. China's economy for over 10 quarters is growing at over 9%. Moreover, the parallel became known that the volume of industrial production and retail sales rose in September by 13.8% and 17.7% respectively. Shanghai index drops by 1.6% and the Hang Seng with the opening of trading has fallen off by 3.3%. Nikkei loses 1.5% today. The Government of Japan lowered its forecasts for economic growth against the background of strengthening the yen and the slowing world economy, which hit the exports of the country. - The euro/dollar today added 0.3% and settled at 1.378. Investors, apparently, felt over-reaction to the statements of Germany. Indeed, already more than a year, as the eurozone's debt problems have resulted out, and the situation at that time only worse. In this regard, the authorities of the EU, even under the pressure of G20, a week will not be able to provide some concrete and effective measures to prevent the crisis. During this period, it may be done only solution for the sixth tranche of Greece. Plan to recapitalize the banking system is still far from the final version, amid continuing political controversy. - Gold, despite the weakening of the dollar, now dropped in price by 0.12% up to $1,671 per troy ounce. The panic in the stock markets so far does not lead to purchases of precious metals. Three-month futures Brent rose by 1.5% to $111.9 per barrel. Rising oil is not completely clear in mind the established news background. Growth of China (the second largest consumer of raw materials) has slowed to two-year lows, and forecasts for the Japanese economy dropped. Moreover, the news coming out of Libya that the largest oil plant, it would be re-launched in November. Quotes of copper have fallen by more than 3% of the data from China. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 3.2 6.2 Buy +93.8 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 250.0 452.0 Buy +80.8 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 148.0 226.0 Buy +52.7 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 5.9 13.6 Buy +132.5 HALYK BANK KASE 218.0 474.0 Buy +117.4 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 237.0 Buy +40.7 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 171.0 237.0 Buy +38.6 BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 329.9 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 16.0 22.7 Hold +42 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 14,300.0 20,062.0 Hold +40 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.02 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 872.5 1,427.0 Buy +64 ENRC LSE 651.5 1,216.0 Buy +87 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE n/a n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 2.2 3.3 Buy +50 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 18,149.0 33,825.0 Buy +86 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 32.8 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This material has exclusively informative character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in present material. [2011-10-18]