Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for October 14, 2011

/IRBIS, October 14, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, forecasts and investment ideas for October 14, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - The existing external background was negative for the shares of Kazakh companies. In the world after a week's rally investors seem to be getting off from risk, which could take place today at KASE. The value of the index could fall by more than 0.5% under pressure of quotations of commodity companies. Banks will most likely show mixed trend. Typically, the dynamics of Kazakh banking market does not match the preferences of global change to the financial piece. - Major indexes of Asia today are falling by 0.5% or more. The flight of investors from the risk due to the negativity of the eurozone. Spain's credit rating downgraded after Italy with a negative outlook, which again raises concerns about the ability of European leaders to keep the spread of the debt crisis. Poor reporting of U.S. corporations, including JP Morgan, puts pressure on finance companies quotes Asia. Annual rate of inflation in China has slowed from 6.2% to 6.1% in September, below forecasts. The indices Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai went down by 0.9%, 1.4% and 1% respectively. - The euro/dollar fell to a mark of 1.377 on the background of the flight of investors into safe haven - the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen. According to some rumors, within 10 days will be decided by the sixth tranche of Greece. Also, according to unconfirmed reports, Germany is preparing for 60% loss on its invested funds in the Greek securities. Weak export data provide further support to China's buck. From the statistics are now expected retail sales data, the volumes are projected to have grown by 0.5% in September. Also published preliminary index of consumer confidence. - After a sharp decline in earlier session, copper restores some lost grounds. Quotes of copper on the Shanghai stock exchange today added 0.44%. Withdraw of investors into risk-free currency continues to put pressure on the price of gold, which dropped to $1,665 per troy ounce. Brent is growing, topping the mark of $ 112 per barrel. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 3.4 6.2 Buy +82.9 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 259.0 452.0 Buy +74.5 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 148.0 226.0 Buy +52.7 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 5.2 13.6 Buy +161.3 HALYK BANK KASE 212.0 474.0 Buy +123.6 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 237.0 Buy +40.7 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 171.0 237.0 Buy +38.6 BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 330.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 15.7 22.7 Hold +44 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 14,105.0 20,062.0 Hold +42 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.02 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 878.5 1,427.0 Buy +62 ENRC LSE 653.0 1,216.0 Buy +86 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE n/a n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 2.2 3.3 Buy +53 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 18,200.0 33,825.0 Buy +86 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 33.3 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This material has exclusively informative character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in present material. [2011-10-14]