The review of key events and forecasts from "ASYL INVEST" JCS (Kazakhstan) analysts for August 12, 2011

/IRBIS, August 12, 2011/ - "ASYL INVEST" JCS (Almaty) has provided IRBIS with the review of key events and its investment ideas and forecasts for August 12, 2011 Analysts of "ASYL INVEST" indicate that the news background for the domestic market today is moderately positive. The growth of U.S. indexes on the eve of may lead to purchases in the domestic market, however, over the last three days, progress on foreign markets can be hardly seen. The direction of foreign markets can be defined today after the close of trading on KASE, so it is possible that the auction will be held today listlessly waiting for news from the outside. Today, the basic ideas may be to buy shares of Kazakhmys, the Halyk Bank and Kazakhtelecom. Shares of first yesterday in trading in London rose by 4%, copper prices today rise again in the Asian session. Shares of Halyk are People oversold at current levels, having lost since the beginning of the month 39% of the cost. For comparison, riskier stocks of Kazkom and BCC have lost only 29% and 16% respectively. Shares of the cellular operator are traded on the minimal elevations from December last year. Besides, ASYL INVEST analysts note the following events on world markets: - The reason for the growth of yesterday have become data, which indicated a decrease in the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits last week to 395 thousand fro, 405 thousand a week earlier. The news gave little hope of recovery of the labor market because number of applications did not return to within 400 thousand in April of this year. Among the most interesting corporate news report was Cisco Systems, the company's profit in the first half fell y/y, but was higher than analysts' forecasts, which led to soaring stock prices of 16%. Investors yesterday ignored the extremely negative data on U.S. trade balance and found to increase in June to its maximum value since October 2008. On Wednesday, the negative sentiment came from Europe, where major indexes fell more than 3% in response to the rising cost of insurance against default of government bonds in Italy, Spain and even France. European banks including the French ones yesterday lost an average of 7% of the value of their shares in response to rumors that France may be the next country to lose its top credit rating. American banks yesterday as the leaders were falling, falling in an average by 8%. Investors yesterday also reinterpreted the results of meeting FOMC, where the controller acknowledged the weak economy and the need to maintain the current monetary policy still soft for an extended period of time. On Monday, lowering the U.S. credit rating agency S & P is not allowed to reverse the negative trend in the markets after the release of positive statistics on the labor market on Friday. On Monday, the index of "large market" has lost 6.7%, falling to the level of 1119.5 points. According to U.S. Department of employment, the number of new jobs in non-farm sectors of the economy amounted to 117 thousand, being above market expectations by 85 thousand; in private sector employment increased by 154 thousand, 41 thousand that higher expectations of economists. Unemployment unexpectedly fell by 0.1 percentage points to 9.1%. Last week, the statistics reflect a significant U.S. economic slowdown. The index of business activity in the services sector in July ISM Manufacturing fell to 52.7 points from 53.5 points the previous month. The market was expecting a moderate growth rate to 53.5 points. Industrial orders in June fell by 0.8%, which was within expectations of economists, however, the growth rate in May was revised to decrease to 0.6% from 0.8% at initial assessment. Economic fears of investors on Thursday endorsed the U.S. statistics on initial applications for unemployment benefits. Last week, the number of applications dropped to 400 thousand, which means that little progress in the labor market. A few supported the market but the U.S. data on employment from the agency ADP, which showed job growth in the private sector of the U.S. economy by 114 thousand, slightly above market expectations (1,000 thousand). - Asian markets, tired of negative, today increase on the news from U.S. and strong corporative results. Hang-Seng index today gains 1%, Shanghai Composite grows by 0.5%. Futures of American indices are decreasing after yesterday increase on the market. - Support for the euro yesterday rendered an opinion on the market that the dynamics of currency pairs currently defines the state of the stock market. The stock market yesterday showed some growth of investors' appetite for risk. On Wednesday, European markets rocked the rumor that France could lose its top credit rating, which may be another reason for the growth of government bonds of the peripheral countries. The euro/dollar on Tuesday soared by 1.39%, lower rates of the U.S. for a long period of time will be negative for the dollar, so the euro which has already raised rates and is expected to further rise in the horizon of three years, yesterday appeared preferable. On Monday, on the basis of trading the euro / dollar fell by 0.72% under the pressure of massive sales of risky assets and of investors into gold and U.S. treasuries, which despite the downgrade of the United States remains a highly reliable tool. On Asian and European sessions, the euro grew after Italy, in particular, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, in response to pressure from the ECB has promised to implement new measures to reduce the budget deficit and come to a balanced budget in 2013. Today, the euro/dollar falls by 0.4% before the release of statistics for the Eurozone and Greece, reflecting the stagnation of industrial production in the region and the decline in GDP of the country troubled by 0.8% in the second quarter. Futures for U.S. indices now corrected that also plays in favor of risky currencies. In the American session the euro could gain support if the forecasts of economists at U.S. retail sales in July were more than justified, and the index of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan will show less significant slowdown in August. According to forecasts, retail sales in the U.S. last month rose by 0.5%, while consumer confidence this month fell to 62 points from 63.7 points in July. Negative data will cause the opposite reaction of the market. - The market of industrial metals yesterday was supported by the positive sentiment in the stock market and the weakening U.S. dollar. Copper for delivery in three months rose in price by 3.3%, nickel and lead rose by 3 and 5% respectively. The weakening economy fears of yesterday have put pressure on gold, which on the day lost 1.6% of the cost. Rising oil prices yesterday was the most significant in the last 3 months after weekly U.S. data on oil and petroleum products from the Department of Energy confirmed the data of API on reduced inventories. Reduce of inventories was the most significant in the last year, reaching 5.2 million barrels or 1.5%. Copper prices fell yesterday by 1.6% after the Fed decision on rates at could boost economic confidence of investors. At the FOMC meeting, it was noted that the U.S. economic recovery is "much slower" than regulator expected. Economic concerns and fears of the euro area again yesterday sent gold to new highs. During the day the price of "yellow metal" reached a level of $1,801 per ounce. Bidding resulted in the growth of rates by 3.0% to reach the $1,793 per ounce. On Tuesday, oil market was supported by data from API that oil and petroleum products in the U.S. last week fell. Copper in the day did not manage to fully win back losses, obtained in the morning, under pressure from very negative end of trading in the United States a day earlier. By the end of the trading day the price of metal has grown up on a promise to support the Fed's soft monetary policy for another three years to support economic growth. Gold continued to rally yesterday on economic concerns, reaching a new historic high at $ 740.4 an ounce. Raw materials market today corrected after rising the previous day. Brent crude is now down by 0.5%, WTI is losing almost 1%. Copper futures for delivery in three months today show moderate growth, rising by 0.6% in Shanghai and New York. Gold today is trading around yesterday's closing mark. The present material is exclusively informative and isn't an offer or recommendation to conclude any deals with stock. "IRBIS" Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions, given in the present material. [2011-08-12]