Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for August 9, 2011

/IRBIS, August 9, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, forecasts and investment ideas for August 9, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - Yesterday, members of Kazakhstan Stock Exchange tried to bring optimism on the local auction, but there was no reason for it. Apparently, some big players have decided to try to fix the profits. Today the situation is unlikely to be repeated, given the fact that trading on international markets resulted in large-scale sales of shares of domestic issuers. Banks are now able to lose from 1.5% to 5%. Raw materials producers against the backdrop of a significant reduction in the cost of crude oil and industrial metals can fail for at least 3%. As a result, the value of KASE index could fall by more than 2%. - Sales in the Asian equity markets continued. In addition to the negative about a possible second wave of global recession were added concerns over a possible tightening of monetary policy in China. Inflation in China has exceeded the expectations of experts, accelerating from 6.4% to 6.5% in July. Another strengthening of the yen (despite the recent intervention by the Bank of Japan foreign exchange market) has a significant pressure on the share prices of the Eastern exporters. Nikkei drops today by 2.6%, Hang Seng - more than 6%, and Shanghai lost about 1%. - The euro/dollar today adds 0.4% and is trading at 1.423. Volatile movement in EUR / USD was due to lack of macro data and news from the eurozone. Debt problems in the region are preserved. Investors are waiting for more concrete action from the European authorities on Nonproliferation of the crisis on the larger economy. Rise in yields of securities in Italy and Spain temporarily stopped in response to the ECB about the planned purchase of sovereign bonds in the developed program of SMP (Securities Markets Program). Unlike their American colleagues, who are actively buying up the dollar during the downturn of stock markets, Asian investors bought the euro. Pressure on the European currency will have increase of the rate of inflation in China and related concerns. - The situation on the commodities market has not changed. According to many market participants, there is no limit for the growth of gold at the moment. In this regard, the large investment banks are revising their forecasts for metal upwards to $ 1,800-2,000 per ounce. The cost of three- month copper futures in Shanghai today is down more than 4%. Technical analysis shows the cost of testing the metal "neck line" in the figure is almost formed a "head and shoulders." Overcoming this line would entail a clear downward trend. Oil Futures Europe Brent crude fell during trading in Asia, almost 2%, approaching the level of $ 101 per barrel. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 3.9 6.2 Buy +61.0 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 331.0 452.0 Buy +36.6 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 144.0 226.0 Buy +56.9 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 6.3 13.6 Buy +116.2 HALYK BANK KASE 251.0 474.0 Buy +88.8 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE n/a 237.0 Buy n/a HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE n/a 237.0 Buy n/a BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 468.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 17.1 22.7 Hold +33 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 15,836.0 20,062.0 Hold +27 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.87 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 957.0 1,427.0 Buy +49 ENRC LSE 587.0 1,216.0 Buy +107 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE n/a n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 2.8 3.3 Hold +20 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 18,000.0 33,825.0 Buy +88 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 34.5 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This material has exclusively informative character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in present material. [2011-08-09]