Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for August 8, 2011

/IRBIS, August 8, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, forecasts and investment ideas for August 8, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - After the events of Friday, members of the Kazakhstan stock market will puzzle over what to do: continue to roll quotes or to wait to clarify the situation on global markets. The cost of industrial metals and crude oil continues to decline boosted that does not promise any optimism for domestic raw materials producers ENRC, Kazakhmys and KMG. Increased risk in global financial system in response to the historical downgrade of U.S. rating will banking sector. KASE index today may fall by 2% or more. - Asian stock indexes continue to actively lose their positions, collapsing with the opening of trading by more than 2%. The decision of S & P to downgrade the U.S. rating was unexpected news to global markets, given the fact that earlier Fitch and Moody's maintained the maximum AAA. Representatives of the "Big Seven" have announced their intention to prevent panic among the investors and stabilize financial markets through liquidity injections and the regulation of unreasonable actions on the foreign exchange market. Asian indices Nikkei, Shanghai and Hang Seng have fallen since the beginning of the session by 2%, 3.4% and 4% respectively. U.S. indexes futures point to a possible decrease in quotations of 1% or more at auction in the U.S. - Euro continues to move upward in response to positive signals from the ECB on the planned purchase of sovereign bonds in Italy and Spain. Previously mentioned the possibility of participation of the stabilization fund eurozone government bonds on the secondary market. Today, the euro / dollar is rising by 0.43% and traded at 1.434. Such dynamics in general is short in view of the fact that the panic on the stock markets continues, and this in turn should lead to purchases of U.S. dollar as the most reliable tool, even downgrade the United States. The Fed will hold a meeting today on the future of monetary policy against the background of knock-down of S & P. Once again rumors about QE3 begin to flare up. - Prices of Brent oil today tumbled by more than 3.3%. Futures of "black gold" were settled at $105.7 per barrel in response to a downgrade of the world's largest economy from the highest AAA to AA + in spite of the fact that U.S. authorities failed to agree at the last moment to raise the bar limit debt. Such a solution of S & P may lead to another round of financial crisis spread panic in global markets. Moreover, the rating outlook for the next two years is "negative". Copper in Shanghai falls by 2%. Gold set a new record - $1,709 per troy ounce - breaking the upper limit of our forecast range in the middle of the year. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 4.4 6.2 Buy +40.9 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 330.0 452.0 Buy +37.0 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 144.0 226.0 Buy +56.9 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 6.7 13.6 Buy +101.6 HALYK BANK KASE 256.0 474.0 Buy +85.2 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE n/a 237.0 Buy n/a HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE n/a 237.0 Buy n/a BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 496.2 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 18.0 22.7 Hold +26 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 15,515.0 20,062.0 Hold +29 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.93 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,064.0 1,427.0 Buy +34 ENRC LSE 663.0 1,216.0 Buy +92 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE n/a n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 3.0 3.3 Hold +11 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 18,000.0 33,825.0 Buy +88 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 37.5 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This material has exclusively informative character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in present material. [2011-08-08]