Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for July 22, 2011

22.07.11 14:47
/IRBIS, July 22, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, forecasts and investment ideas for July 22, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - The situation on foreign markets today, says on the preservation of positive sentiment in the stock market. However, the dynamics of the euro/dollar and commodity markets are making some degree of doubt about the prospects for growth in risk assets in the near future. Rally for the euro is stopped, playing on the latest news on the financial support of Greece. Commodity markets show extinction of "bullish" sentiment. Oil has stopped growing, reaching $ 99 and 117 per barrel respectively in the U.S. and Europe, copper continues to decline on negative index of business activity in the industrial sector of China. Along with calls for the IMF to strengthen the yuan and stop the promotion of the Chinese economy, the markets ignored yesterday's weak economic statistics, showing sharp decline in business activity in the euro area and the growth of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. - After long awaiting positive for Greece was held, prompting investors around the world for mass purchases of risky assets. Asian indexes today are growing, now supported by positive outlook for earnings of financial companies, which quotations have soared by at least 1%. Japan's Nikkei gained more than 1.2%, reaching two-week highs. Hong Kong and Hang Seng add more than 1.6%. Positive reports of U.S. companies support the actions of Asian exporters. The growth of China's Shanghai index is more restrained - 0.45% - for domestic problems of inflation and the IMF proposal to increase rates and the strengthening of the yuan. - Today, after a sharp rise the previous day, the euro/dollar turned down by 0.23% to 1.439. Despite the fact that EU leaders failed to reach a consensus, approved the Greek plan of 159 billion euro, market participants are concerned about further action by the international rating agencies. The new plan includes voluntary participation of private creditors on 50 billion euros. Previously, Fitch, Moody's and S & P warned that the possible declaration of Greece to the selective default scenario, losses, though voluntary, private holders of sovereign bonds. Speculation that U.S. policymakers will soon come to a compromise to increase the limit of debt, support the dollar. - On the commodity markets mixed feelings are observed. The beneficiary of the Greek positive is oil. Brent futures in the session rose by 0.06% to $117.7 per barrel. The expected stabilization of the debt in the euro area supports the growth prospects of the demand for "black gold". The negative data on industrial production in Europe and China continue to put pressure on the price of copper. Futures of "red" metal in Shanghai fell by 0.8%. Optimistic expectations for the debts reduce the need of European investors to protect against the risks that led to a decline in gold prices, which today are still cheaper by 0.12% up to $1,589 per ounce. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 5.1 6.2 Buy +20.6 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 390.6 452.0 Buy +15.7 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE - 226.0 - n/a HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.5 13.6 Buy +60.9 HALYK BANK KASE 320.0 474.0 Buy +48.1 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE - 237.0 Buy n/a HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE - 237.0 Buy n/a BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 495.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 19.8 22.7 Hold +15 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 17,550.0 20,062.0 Hold +14 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.97 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,351.0 1,427.0 Hold +6 ENRC LSE 779.5 1,216.0 Buy +56 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 3.6 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 3.2 3.3 Hold +2 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,600.0 33,825.0 Buy +73 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 40.5 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This material has exclusively informative character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in present material. [2011-07-22]