Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for July 21, 2011

/IRBIS, July 21, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, forecasts and investment ideas for July 21, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - The situation on foreign markets today is not favorable for the domestic market. Negative news on industrial production in China reduced investors' appetite for risk. - A wave of selling of risky assets is observed in the Asian sites, concerned about the difficulties in the negotiation process to increase the U.S. debt limit. However, the main film came from China. According to preliminary data, industrial activity has dropped to 28 month lows. This has generated concern among investors about the future growth of China. Over the IMF said that he hoped that Chinese authorities should continue tightening of monetary policy to reduce inflationary pressures. The Shanghai and Hang Seng are down today by 0.62% and 0.23% respectively. Nikkei fell in early trading by 0.2%. The sudden change in Japan's trade balance surplus in the direction of nearly $ 900 million is holding back the pace of reduction of quotations index. - Today, the euro / dollar continued its rise, adding from the start of trading 0.3% and reaching the upper limit of our forecast range for the week - the level of 1.425. Basic optimism in the euro provide news that the leaders of France and Germany with the participation of President of the ECB and the EU Presidency were able to develop a joint plan to provide additional aid package to Greece. Details of the agreement are not yet known. However, the spread opinion that the amount of funding could be close to the amount of funds allocated in May 2010 - 110 billion euros. Thus, the results of the summit will be a turning point in changing the situation of debt in the eurozone. European leaders must come to a common consensus to leave the spread of the crisis on major economies of the region, such as Spain and Italy, which experienced a record rise in yields of bonds. The day will be rich and on statistics, both from Europe and the USA. - On the commodities market weakening of the dollar does not lead to increase in prices for oil and industrial metals, for which demand is reduced by the general weakening of risk appetite of Asian investors. An unexpected decline in industrial production in China increases expectations for reducing consumption in the second largest economy in the world. Copper futures in Shanghai fell more than by 0.7%. The cost of crude oil, Brent crude European declines by 0.14%. Returned to investor demand for gold against a background of concerns about the preservation of the outcome of EU summit on debt issues in Greece. The spot price of precious metals has settled above $ 1,601 per troy ounce. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 5.1 6.2 Buy +21.6 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 390.6 452.0 Buy +15.7 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE - 226.0 - n/a HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.4 13.6 Buy +61.3 HALYK BANK KASE 315.0 474.0 Buy +50.5 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE - 237.0 Buy n/a HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE - 237.0 Buy n/a BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 490.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 19.5 22.7 Hold +17 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 17,150.0 20,062.0 Hold +17 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.00 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,346.0 1,427.0 Hold +6 ENRC LSE 775.5 1,216.0 Buy +57 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 3.6 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 3.2 3.3 Hold +5 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,500.0 33,825.0 Buy +73 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 40.8 n/a Review +21.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This material has exclusively informative character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in present material. [2011-07-21]