Market reviews and recommendations of "Brokerage house "Jazz Capital" JCS (Kazakhstan) analysts for July 19, 2011

/IRBIS, July 19, 2011/ -"Jazz Capital" Brokerage house JCS (Almaty, Real Invest Group) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for July 19, 2011. - The main indexes of U.S. and European markets finished the last session with another drop. The negative attitude of the second half of last week, market participants are fully decided to move to the beginning of the current week, and the factors that put pressure on the players practically have not changed. Thus, traders of the world stock and commodity areas are in complete uncertainty regarding the situation with the increase of state plates. U.S. lawmakers debt, and the less time is left before determining the date of August 2, the more the soul cover terrible market participants doubt. In spite of that, the analysts of "Jazz Capital" believe that the outcome of a vote on the matter, certainly predetermined - no political battles will not keep the warring parties (Democrats and Republicans) to take extreme and unjustified measures. Nevertheless, the very appearance of conflict with American envoys in a rather unexpected question, coupled with the promise of the Agency's S & P, one way or another to deprive the U.S. rating of "AAA" according to "Jazz Capital" is already an extremely negative signal to markets, and nearly six-month consolidation, observed at the sites the U.S. has the potential to transform into a downtrend. The next negative factor to maintain its influence since the end of last week is the completion of the regular stress tests of European banks, the results of which revealed that in the early capitalization need at least eight banks in the euro area, 5 of which represent Spain. Despite the fact that the total amount of funds required is only about 2.5 billion euro, market participants assessed the results of previous stress tests still quite negative because the question of the objectivity of European regulators in carrying out such checks have long stood out, and a final opinion market participants it is located not in favor of a European regulator. Following the session, key indices in Europe fell in the range of 1.55% - 2.04%, the U.S. Dow Jones and S & P 500 fell in the capitalization of 0.76% and 0.81% respectively. After the close of the New York session, a report was published by computer giant IBM, under which the corporation for the second quarter brought to its shareholders about $ 3.09 earnings per common share. Futures on the U.S. indices, apparently under the influence of this report, IBM, are currently traded at an average increase of 0.2%. - Key areas of BRIC countries have completed the last session with drop of indexes. Correlation actions of traders from the developed western areas and players from the sites of emerging economies, somewhat lost in the last few weeks, gradually begins to recover, especially since they both usually operate on "global" factors. It is to such factors (able to have a direct impact on the economies of the world, including countries in emerging markets), are raising the question of state plates. Regional market participants, even in the absence of self-importance of local news sites, on Monday said that they "imported" Western attitude of players, which as we have said, was quite negative. However, the decrease in the indices of sites in developing countries was far more moderate decrease of indices of the Western, in this case, another factor that negatively impacted by the actions of regional traders became a regular drop in oil prices. Today's premarket sites for the BRIC countries is regarded by us as neutral, representatives of Asian countries started today with moderate sales. - Prices of Brent crude oil reference on the basis of trading on Monday fell by 1.03% to $ 116.05. Achieved in last Wednesday quotes "black gold" monthly highs, and have not been saved by traders of oil futures market, which acted as one of the causes of the correction and then, the pace of which are still modest. Suddenly appeared a problem with another increase in the upper bracket of the American state. debt, put the majority of market participants in the deadlock - the probability of defaulting U.S., though it seems scanty and only theoretical, nevertheless exists. Against this backdrop, even the positive reports of U.S. companies that do not contribute significantly optimistic market participants. Analysts of "Jazz Capital" believe that the quotes of "black gold" at the moment have quite fundamental reasons for the preservation of correctional attitudes, the factors of technical analysis, since no penetration at $ 120 per barrel, also more inclined to continue to decline. - Prices of gold, at the end of last session rose by 1.19% to $1,601.4. Quotes of "precious metal" are currently located in the most profitable and promising conditions, compared with all remaining non-oil commodities and securities. Fundamentals due to the current risks in the U.S. and Europe, supported by technical analysis of the factors, whose signals are becoming stronger with each new setting historic highs. The only factor that continue to put pressure on the "bull" market of "gold" futures are values of the indicator of convergence / divergence of average MACD of the projections on the weekly chart, which is now almost through the roof for the upper critical level, indicating that the price of an ounce (by their opinion) is excessive. "Jazz Capital" maintains its positive outlook for gold prices in the short and medium term, and considers that for those who had not time to open a "long" position at a penetration level of $1,560 and $ 1,640, current gold prices remain appeal, however, it is clear that now must be much more cautious. - Currency pair EUR / USD on the basis of the previous session reinforced by 0.24% to 1.4113. Euro once again managed to fight off the support level, which is located at around 1.40, while preserving the current three-month currency pair downtrend is not in doubt. Further strengthening of the euro, which is possible only in case of a defaulting USA 02 August, or in front of a sharp rise in the attractiveness of "risky" assets, it seems quite unlikely, and therefore, the prospect of reducing the cost of the euro seems to be more apparent. At the same time note that the level of 1.40, once possessed almost the extremely high potential, some have lost their "bullish" effect, and is now much more important is the mark of 1.38, approximately at the level of support which is located in two-year uptrend. - Currency pair GBP / USD at end of last session, adjusted by 0.15% to 1.6076. The British pound continued the three-day decline on Monday, as the euro, was supported by the strong level at around 1.60. In this case, unlike the euro, analysts of "Jazz Capital" believe that the long-term downward trend of the currency pair has formed and has its beginning from May of this year. This material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. IRBIS Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in this material. [2011-07-19]