Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for July 15, 2011

/IRBIS, July 15, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, forecasts and investment ideas for July 15, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - Volatility on foreign stock markets may now lead to a significant decrease in activity in the locale. It is not excluded that after a sharp decline a day earlier, rebound is possible today to certain issuers of the banking sector. Securities of EP KMG are likely to experience another strong pressure. Caution should be exercised on shares of domestic steelmakers in mind of the possible fixing of profits after yesterday's rise. - The Asian stock markets observe predominantly negative sentiment. The Japanese Nikkei index at the beginning of the day was growing up, supported by quotations of consumer electronics retailers, whose growth is taking place at a recovery of the government subsidy programs to encourage consumers to purchase energy efficient equipment in connection with a possible shortage of electricity. However, S & P decision on a possible downgrade of the U.S. led to a significant strengthening of the yen, which lowers the value of securities exporters. As a result, Nikkei is located on the border of red and green zones. Indices Hang-Seng and Shanghai today are losing 0.25% and 0.05% respectively. Chinese developers are in the lead of reduction. - Today, after Moody's S&P has announced its intention to lower credit rating of USA. The agency says about 50% chance of a downgrade in three months amid continuing debate in the country for an increase in debt limit. Earlier, in April, S & P revised its outlook on the U.S. long-term rating to negative. The political opposition in the country, according to the company, could be delayed beyond the critical date - August 2. Support for the euro has successfully completed the regular auction of Italy placement of 5- and 15-year state obligations to 3 billion euros. Moreover the Senate approved the country's four-year plan of the Government to reduce costs by 40 billion euros. Further, the budget should be supported in the lower house of Parliament. While the euro / dollar is rising by 0.2% and is trading at 1.417. - The situation on commodity markets has not changed. Brent crude oil is traded at $116.2 per barrel, losing 0.1% since the opening of trading in Asia. In Shanghai copper futures for delivery fell more than 0.2% amid concerns about possible reductions in demand for industrial metals. The price of gold today has unfolded, falling by 0.2%. Perhaps investors have decided to make a break, considering the record set sufficient. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 5.1 6.2 Buy +21.6 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 385.0 452.0 Buy +17.4 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 188.0 226.0 Buy +20.2 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.6 13.6 Buy +58.1 HALYK BANK KASE 329.0 474.0 Buy +44.1 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE - 237.0 Buy n/a HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE - 237.0 Buy n/a BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 490.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 19.7 22.7 Hold +15 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 17,050.0 20,062.0 Hold +18 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.98 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,350.0 1,427.0 Hold +6 ENRC LSE 768.5 1,216.0 Buy +58 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 3.6 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 3.0 3.3 Hold +11 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,600.0 33,825.0 Buy +73 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 40.8 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This material has exclusively informative character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in present material. [2011-07-15]