Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for July 13, 2011

/IRBIS, July 13, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, forecasts and investment ideas for July 13, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - Today on the domestic market it will be difficult to choose the direction of motion. The last days have shown the continuing debt problems in the euro zone, and a sharp depreciation of the euro puts in doubt the possibility of further rally on the stock market and commodities. Today in foreign markets temporary optimism can occur, but this is unlikely to be a reason for shopping at the local market. - The Asian markets are growing today, supported by multiple favorable factors. Firstly, the protocol data of the last meeting of FOMC indicated that the regulator has not yet finally determined on the further stimulation of the economy. Secondly, European officials say the option of "selective default" for Greece is not considered by the finance ministers of the region, while the officials agreed that private investors must participate in the second program, saving Greece. Reinforces the positive optimism of China's GDP data. In the second quarter economic growth of China was 9.5% y/y, exceeding the forecast of the market (9.3%). Data on rates of industrial production in China also were higher than the expectations of economists. Shanghai index today adds 1.2%, Hang Seng - 1.0%, Japan's Nikkei - 0.4%. - Today, a positive outcome of the Italian auction moves a couple of euro/dollar up by 0.24% above $ 1.40. Italy plans to spend a few more offerings of its securities. Rumors that the ECB for the first time since March of this year returned to the bond purchase troubled countries, supporting the optimism of market participants on the successful sale of treasury bonds. Meanwhile in the U.S. monetary authorities can not reach a consensus on the need for further measures to stimulate the economy, as evidenced by the record of the last meeting FOMC. Dual mandate of the Fed - reducing unemployment and stable inflation rate of just below 2% - complicates the formation of a common consensus. On the one hand you can not use the additional mitigation measures that prevent a further rise in inflation, on the other hand should not be tightened, because unemployment is high. Today the Fed's head Ben Bernanke's speech is expected. - The raw materials market today has positive sentiment. Oil prices of Brent crude increased at time of optimism on Greece, however, U.S. prices are falling in response to weak data on API oil and petroleum products. Copper futures in Shanghai added 1.5%, while in New York in electronic trading - 0.8% amid speculation that shortage of metal in the market, as well as the growth of Chinese economy, create good preconditions for the rise in prices. The spot price of gold today is reduced slightly due to cooling concerns about the spread of disease of Greece to Italy. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 5.1 6.2 Buy +22.0 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 400.0 452.0 Hold +13.0 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 188.0 226.0 Buy +20.2 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.6 13.6 Buy +58.1 HALYK BANK KASE 320.0 474.0 Buy +48.1 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE - 237.0 Buy n/a HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE - 237.0 Buy n/a BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 499.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 19.9 22.7 Hold +14 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 17,600.0 20,062.0 Hold +14 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.96 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,313.0 1,427.0 Hold +9 ENRC LSE 767.5 1,216.0 Buy +58 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 3.5 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 2.9 3.3 Buy +15 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,600.0 33,825.0 Buy +73 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 40.8 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This material has exclusively informative character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in present material. [2011-07-13]