Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for July 11, 2011

/IRBIS, July 11, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, forecasts and investment ideas for July 11, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - For the domestic market of today the circumstances are negative. Bad news from the U.S. and China likely will cause the reduction of positions in commodity stocks. In general, at this point it is clear that the news background is preferable to "bears". The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakening, the debt crisis in Greece may spread to Italy and other countries in the region, while monetary policy in China, most likely, will not soften on the back of high inflation rate in the country. - Major indexes in the Asian region fell today after the U.S. markets at a very weak U.S. data on employment, returning to the market concerns about the possibility of "double bottom" in the economy. Consolidated the negative sentiment and the data of China's inflation and trade balance. According to figures released 09 June, the inflation rate in the country in June amounted to 6.4% y/y, which is the maximum value over the past three years. Moreover, the figures exceeded economists' forecast (6.2%), bowing to market participants believe that the central bank of the country will not soften monetary policy. Much worse than expected figures were China's imports and exports. Imports in June grew by only 19.3%, the weakest pace since December 2010 Exports added 17.9%. By both measures, economists expect growth of 25.3 and 18.6% respectively. Hang Seng index today falls by 0.8%, Japanese Nikkei - by 0.5%. - Today, the euro/dollar continues to move in a downward trend, falling by 0.5% to levels below 1.42. Mass exodus from risky assets on negative data on U.S. labor market sparked further purchases of the dollar. Meanwhile, the situation in the euro area with debt escalates. European officials, along with the ECB today hold an emergency meeting, where we will discuss measures to prevent the Greek script in Italy. Rumors that the political battles in the country could lead to the resignation of Finance Minister Tremonti, who has long been successfully kept Italy out of the debt problems of the peripheral countries. This news led to a significant increase in CDS country. It is still unknown fate of the additional aid package to Greece, the final decision on which European ministers plan to adopt at the end of the week. - In the market of raw materials there are mixed feelings today. Oil prices continue to decline on weak U.S. data on employment, while metals have stabilized after a decline on Friday. Copper futures in electronic trading in London are growing at a moderate pace after the importation of the metal in China rose for the first time in the last three months. Speculation that poor weather conditions in Chile, the largest exporter of the metal, and strikes at the field in Indonesia, will help preserve the shortage of metal in the market, also supports the quotation. In Shanghai and New York quotes of "red metal" show a negative trend in the range of 0.1%. Prices for Brent oil and WTI today reduced within 0.5% on concerns about demand. The spot price of gold adjusted somewhat to the present emergency meeting of eurozone ministers on the possible spread of Greek issues in Italy. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 5.5 6.2 Hold +13.8 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 407.0 452.0 Hold +11.1 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 188.0 226.0 Buy +20.2 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.0 13.6 Buy +51.1 HALYK BANK KASE 332.0 474.0 Buy +42.8 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE - 237.0 Buy n/a HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE - 237.0 Buy n/a BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 499.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 20.7 22.7 Hold +10 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 17,600.0 20,062.0 Hold +14 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.98 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,352.0 1,427.0 Hold +6 ENRC LSE 788.5 1,216.0 Buy +54 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 3.6 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 2.9 3.3 Hold +14 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,600.0 33,825.0 Buy +73 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 41.0 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This material has exclusively informative character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in present material. [2011-07-11]