Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for July 5, 2011

/IRBIS, July 5, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for July 5, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - Today on the domestic market it will be difficult to choose the direction of motion after the optimism of foreign markets began to weaken. Shares of mining companies and banks are likely to be weak under pressure. - Asian indexes today have gone into negative territory, but only slightly. More or less favorable background of Greece supports indexes, while individual events weaken the optimism of investors. The first concern is the statement by S & P that the voluntary extension of Greek debt from private investors will be treated as a "selective default". At the same time increasing concerns about asset quality of Chinese banks after Moody's has indicated that the scale of problem loans in the sector, more significant than previously thought. The probability of change in the forecast on ratings of Chinese banks to "negative" increases. Shares of Chinese banks are falling in price in the range of 1%. Shanghai index is down by 0.1%, Hang Seng - by 0.04%, the Japanese Nikkei is gaining 0.1% today. - Today, the euro turned around, down by 0.35% to 1.449 in the Asian session. Eastern investors reacted negatively to the warnings of Standard & Poor's possible recognition of the "selective default" of Greece. Thus the situation is again not in the hands of European leaders. Previously, all fate additional assistance depended on the vote in the Parliament of Greece, now - from the harsh environment of rating agencies, even in spite of the fact that the largest banks in France and Germany want to stabilize themselves in Greece, and therefore are willing to volunteer extension. At the same time, ratings companies point out that the default rating will be until the new bond issue, as it was with Uruguay in 2003, when the country's rating was lowered to selective default, but after 2-4 weeks the new bonds were at the level of B-. - On the market of raw materials uncertain dynamics remains. The spot price of gold has not changed in value compared with yesterday's close. Copper futures in Shanghai lost 0.3% of the cost after the Central Bank of China said that the country was still facing serious inflationary pressure and tighter monetary policy would continue. Prices of Brent crude is now also reduced by 0.3% in response to the Chinese central bank, casting doubt on the prospects for growth in demand for raw materials. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 5.6 6.2 Hold +11.7 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 400.0 452.0 Hold +13.0 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 188.0 226.0 Buy +20.2 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.0 13.6 Buy +50.8 HALYK BANK KASE 320.0 474.0 Buy +48.1 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE - 237.0 Buy n/a HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE - 237.0 Buy n/a BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 490.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 20.8 22.7 Hold +9 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 17,800.0 20,062.0 Hold +13 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.00 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,395.0 1,427.0 Hold +2 ENRC LSE 809.5 1,216.0 Buy +50 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 3.4 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 3.1 3.3 Buy +9 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,550.0 33,825.0 Buy +73 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 39.8 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This material has exclusively informative character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in present material. [2011-07-05]