Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for June 29, 2011

/IRBIS. June 29, 2011/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for June 29, 2011. The analysts expect positive opening of trading on KASE amid increase of prices of shares and depositary receipts of Kazakhstani issuers in London the day before. During the day, following the forecast, the activity of market participants will be low, but purchases of shares will continue, and the KASE index will end the day with increase. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" expect the following developments on international markets today: - JSC "Exploration Production KazMunaiGas"("KMG EP"or the "Company") reported on developments in connection with the protest action, which takes place in the production branch "Ozenmunaygaz" (OMG) in Zhanaozen (Mangystau). As a result of the action protest, which began May 26, 2011, the total lag in oil production since the beginning of the protest was about 150 thousand tons. The Company believes that the amount of annual oil production from the field Uzen reaches the target level and above will be lower by at least 600 thousand tons. However, the Company expects that, bearing in mind the possibility of compensation for the expense of other mining assets, the consolidated volume of production, including shares in the LLP "JV "Kazgermunai", CCEL (JSC "Karazhanbasmunai"),"PetroKazakhstan" and LLP "NSC" in 2011 will be approximately 4% lower than the previously planned level of 13.5 million tons. This assessment may change depending on how long the protest and how quickly will be restored stable production activities of the branch. Currently, the Company shall take all necessary measures to maintain continuity of oil production and safety at work sites of OMG. KMG Management is continuing education among the participants of the protest, stressing its readiness to consider the labor dispute under the procedures established by law, but only after a complete cessation of illegal protests, and the resumption of work by all employees without exception OMG. The company also notes a significant reduction in the number of protesters - up to 650 people (the maximum number was 2,500). Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" believe that all the most likely outcomes of labor conflict resolution is built into current stock prices, and depositary receipts of KMG EP, and the risk of investing in shares of oil companies in developing countries is adequately perceived by investors. JSC "BCC Invest" reiterates the recommendation to "buy" on shares and depositary receipts of EP KMG JCS with target price of 20,500 tenge per share and $23.60 per GDR. - Moody's Investors Service has assigned local commercial bank "CenterCredit" long-term deposit rating on a national scale (NSR) "Ba3.kz", the rating agency reported. NSR does not require the assignment of its predictions. The agency explains that the rating reflects the degree of solvency of the bank in the Kazakh market and assigned to the bank due to the fact that the bank has a long-term deposit rating in national currency at "B1" on the global rating scale of Moody's. Any changes to NSR will depend on the credit rating of the bank, calculated on a global scale. According to the JSC "BCC Invest" the message is neutral for the stock price of "Bank CenterCredit". As mentioned above, this rating reflects the level assigned to the global rating scale. JSC "BCC Invest" leaves the current recommendation to "buy" with target price of 608 tenge per share. - Shares of Kazakhmys PLC are available for trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Today, June 29, 2011 began trading of shares of Kazakhmys PLC on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" consider that the placement will have moderate positive effect on share prices of the company, given the expected interest in the company's Chinese investors, because it is China who is the largest buyer of copper products produced by Kazakhmys PLC. JSC "BCC Invest" confirms the current recommendation on the shares of Kazakhmys PLC at 'BUY' with a target price of 16.31 pounds per share. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" expect the following developments on international markets today: - Russia is expected to publish data on the consumer price index and on the fiscal balance. - in France at 11:30 (AST) will be published GDP data. In the UK, at 14:30 (AST) will be published data on the index of activity in the service sector's net lending volume and the monetary aggregate M4. At 15:00 (AST) to be published data on euro area consumer, economic and industrial confidence. - in U.S. at 17:00 (AST) to be published data on applications for mortgages from the MBA, and at 20:00 (AST) - on pending sales in the housing market. - today reports of General Mills Inc, Family Dollar Stores Inc, Monsanto Co and others will be heard. Analysts of BCC Invest JSC are giving the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in internal market: ------------------------------------------------------------- Closing Target Potential, Issuer Code price price % Recommen- dation ----------------- ------- ------- ------ ---------- --------- Kazkommertsbank KKGB 395 583 +47.59 Neutral KKGBp 188 196 +4.26 Neutral Halyk Bank HSBK 321 415 +29.28 Hold Bank CenterCredit CCBN 490 608 +24.08 Buy Tsesnabank TSBN 942.85 1,030 +9.24 Neutral EP KazMunaiGaz RDGZ 17,200 20,500 +19.19 Buy Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 2,894 3,870 +33.72 Buy ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 1,770 2,550 +44.07 Buy Kazakhtelekom KZTK 19,400 Review KZTKp 9,200 9,300 +1.09 Hold MREK MREK 1,100 1,130 +2.73 Hold ------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-06-29]