Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for June 27, 2011

/IRBIS, June 27, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for June 27, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - On Monday, the situation on foreign markets will develop in a negative way. Greece fears, falling commodity prices, as well as new demands on the world's largest banks, will put pressure on the stock market. Analysts of "BTA Securities" negatively look today on the prospects of shares of mining sector in Kazakhstan. Kazakhmys shares today are down in value in response to the decline in copper prices on the background of strengthening the dollar and the negative situation with the demand for metal in China. ENRC shares will fall under the pressure of negative external news background and reduced investor confidence in the company due to the crisis of corporate governance. Falling oil prices below the 100-day moving average will play against the shares of KMG EP as this reflects the serious concerns about the market economy and consumption. International Energy Agency decision to throw out on the market large quantities of oil in order to correct the inflated world prices will have a lasting impact on the quotes. Shares of the banking sector are also under pressure, the growth of CDS spreads in Kazakhstan and the country's banks is bad for their quotations. - Asian sites today react negatively to falling U.S. stock indices and stocks of commodity companies. Regulator's decision at a meeting of leading nations on June 25 in Basel that the world's largest banks have to create an additional capital buffer at no more than 2.5% of assets in excess of the previous low of 7%, also putting pressure on markets. According to preliminary estimates, new requirements can be applied to the 30 largest commercial banks in the world. Indices Hang-Seng and Nikkei are down by 0.8% and 0.9% respectively. - Today, the euro/dollar continues to move in a southerly direction, dropping 0.43% and bargaining at the level of 1.4127. An increasing number of market participants put on the fact that Greek parliament to vote on Tuesday will reject the proposed government budget. Such a decision would be more related to social factors, as provided for substantial wage cuts, a massive reduction in the workers (the unemployment rate exceeds 30%), as well as increased tax revenue. In this situation, the EU and the IMF are powerless, because the issue is the responsibility of domestic institutions in Greece. The failure of Prime Minister George Papandreou will mean that the country will have to live without external funds. Moreover, some international experts expect the ambulance to develop a mechanism to break the weak economies, including Greece as a pioneer of monetary union. - Commodity markets today resumed its decline under pressure from fears about Greece before the fateful vote in the Parliament of this country's deficit reduction plan. Regular depreciation of the euro reduces investor demand for industrial metals as a defense against foreign exchange risks. Crude futures of WTI oil are down today by almost 1% and traded at slightly above $90 a barrel. European oil falls in price by more than 1%, while receiving support at $ 105. With a similar decrease in quotations copper is trading today in Shanghai and New York, losses amount to 1%. Gold compared to yesterday's closing virtually unchanged in value. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 5.4 6.2 Buy +15.2 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 404.5 452.0 Hold +11.7 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 188.0 226.0 Buy +20.2 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.9 13.6 Buy +53.7 HALYK BANK KASE 327.0 474.0 Buy +45.0 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE - 237.0 Buy n/a HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE - 237.0 Buy n/a BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 490.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 19.7 22.7 Hold +15 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 17,600.0 20,062.0 Hold +14 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.97 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,255.0 1,427.0 Hold +14 ENRC LSE 711.5 1,216.0 Buy +71 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 3.4 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 2.7 3.3 Buy +21 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,950.0 33,825.0 Buy +70 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 39.8 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This material has exclusively informative character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in present material. [2011-06-27]