Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for June 2, 2011

/IRBIS, June 2, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for June 2, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - Frustrated statistics from the U.S., lowering of the rating of Greece, a significant decline in oil and metals at commodity market - all this will lead to negative dynamics of Kazakh index. Export-oriented companies will suffer most of all: Oil fell almost 2%, copper has lost more than 1.2%. Sales will not pass side and the blue-chip banking sector. The only one who can distinguish itself is Kazakhtelecom, net profit of which in a quarter was 16.3 billion, up 6% increase versus the same period in 2010: Revenues from services increased by 12.5% to 40.1 billion KZT; gross profit increased by 14%, profit before tax - in 2.4 times, the company's assets grew by 3%, liabilities decreased by 4%, equity increased by 7%. - Yesterday's panic, related to concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy spread from the U.S. stock markets to Asian markets, where most of the indices are losing more than 1.5% (Shanghai -2%, Hang-Seng -1.6%). Pressure on the Japanese Nikkei (-1.55%), and had a possible resignation of Prime Minister Naoto Kan, whose fate will be decided today on a vote in Parliament. Strengthening of the yen also had a negative effect on the dynamics of shares of exporters, especially automakers. The next fall of Greece's credit rating agency Moody's has increased bearish sentiment. - After dropping a day before, the euro/dollar has decided to return to the upward movement despite the reduction by agency Moody's of credit rating in Greece and 50% probability of default. EUR/USD rate increases by 0.2% to 1.436. Interesting is the fact that the continued decline in demand for risky assets does not lead to massive buying of U.S. dollar. Most likely not in favor of bucks Asian investors have decided to play yesterday very negative statistics. Moreover, it extends the view that the QE2 program has not produced the desired effect, fueling rumors of a possible protracted period of soft policy of the Fed. Today is expected data on the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits (the forecast - 417th.) and the volume of industrial orders in the U.S. - In the market of raw material is now prevailing bearish sentiment. Yesterday's mass exodus from risky assets continues to adversely affect the quotes of commodities. Statistics indicate a slowdown in industrial production in many major economies of the world. Weak performance in the U.S. labor market reinforces pessimism. Brent is now cheaper by 0.33% and is traded below $114 a barrel. Futures price for the supply of copper in Shanghai decreased by 1.3%. Slight price increase is observed for gold. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 6.0 6.2 Sell +3.3 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 460.0 452.0 Sell -1.7 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 198.0 226.0 Sell +14.1 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.0 13.6 Buy +51.1 HALYK BANK KASE 330.0 474.0 Buy +43.6 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 185.2 237.0 Buy +27.9 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE n/a 237.0 Buy - BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 523.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 21.8 22.7 Hold +4 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 18,700.0 20,062.0 Hold +7 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.97 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,294.0 1,427.0 Hold +10 ENRC LSE 832.5 1,216.0 Buy +46 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 2.3 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 3.5 3.3 Hold -5 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,450.0 33,825.0 Buy +74 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 39.0 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-06-02]