Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for May 31, 2011

/IRBIS, May 31, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for May 31, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - Positive news in Greece led to a change in sentiment in overseas stock markets. The positive dynamics of the Asian markets may increase the optimism and activity in the domestic market. It is likely that after fixing the gains the previous day, today, in demand will be the stocks of the financial sector, particularly stocks of NSBK. Growth of quotations of oil will positively affect the dynamics of shares of KMG EP. - Today, Chinese indexes grow, supported by shares of energy companies, on news that the government of China plans to increase retail electricity prices. Such a decision on the plan of the Government should encourage suppliers to increase their production capacity, which should lead to a gradual reduction of electricity shortage. Positive news on Greece led to an increase in demand of Asian investors for risky assets. Shanghai is growing by 0.5%, Hang Seng - by 0.9%, while the Japanese Nikkei adds 1%. - The euro/dollar duet is now growing by 0.7% and is at the level of 1.438. In the early days the course was able to break the mark 1.44. Germany, apparently decided to change its tough stance and agree to provide additional assistance to Greece, the development plan of which runs until the end of June. Ambiguity for further developments led to the fact that there are currently more questions than concrete answers. Under what conditions will funds be allocated? - There are rumors that the EU will have to take an active part in the process to reduce the public debt of Greece. How much aid? - Probably around 30 billion euros. Will the debt be restructured? - The European ministers are in favor of "reprofilating" that is, lenders voluntarily agree to the extension of time to pay the bonds. ECB opposes any form of restructuring, and the rating agencies will consider it as a default. What position will the IMF take? - The Fund may refuse to grant Greece with its tranche, as should receive guarantees for 12 months on refinancing of funds. The EU could not yet provide adequate plans in this regard. - A significant weakening of the dollar led to an increase in the cost of Commodities in the commodity markets. Futures contracts for the supply of Brent today added more than 0.4% and are traded at $115.2 per barrel. WTI is going up by 0.7% on news about a leak in the pipeline Keystone, which had been temporarily disrupted. Precious metals as instruments of insurance against the risks of inflation and debt problems of the eurozone continue to be in demand. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 6.0 6.2 Sell +3.3 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 458.0 452.0 Sell -1.3 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 198.0 226.0 Sell +14.1 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.3 13.6 Buy +46.2 HALYK BANK KASE 337.8 474.0 Buy +40.3 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 185.2 237.0 Buy +27.9 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE n/a 237.0 Buy - BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 524.3 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 21.4 22.7 Hold +6 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 18,725.0 20,062.0 Hold +7 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.98 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,296.0 1,427.0 Hold +10 ENRC LSE 855.5 1,216.0 Buy +42 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 2.2 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 3.8 3.3 Hold -13 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,401.0 33,825.0 Buy +74 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 39.0 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-05-31]