Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for May 25, 2011

/IRBIS, May 25, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for May 25, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - Some improvement in the external markets today may activate the domestic market. Investor demand for shares may return the metallurgical sector in the backdrop of rising prices for industrial metals. - Trading in Asia today is dictated by the "bears". Debt problems of the euro area, lowering oil prices and strengthening U.S. dollar before the release of data on durable goods orders for April and today's GDP for the first quarter tomorrow, are putting pressure on stock prices of Japanese and Chinese markets. In Japan, investors are also under bad impression of the data on the country's trade balance. For the first time for the last thirty years the country in April received a deficit because of rising raw material costs and falling exports as a result of the devastating earthquake in March. Japan's Nikkei index today is reduced by 0.4%, Hong Kong and Shanghai indexes lost 0.5 and 0.2% respectively. - Today, after a minor correction of the previous day, the euro continued its downward spiral. The euro/dollar is losing 0.33% and is traded at 1.405. Pressure on the euro is exerted by the news that European politicians and the ECB can not reach a consensus on solving the problems of Greek debt. Show some desperation and officials in Greece. So the Prime Minister said that the EU failed to convince investors that the government is taking active steps to fight the debt crisis, developing new amendments to the budget and the measures to privatize state assets. Ratings agencies reported that any form of restructuring, including reprofiling (rollover) shall be deemed to default on obligations. In Asian markets exodus in riskless assets, and lower prices for raw materials increased demand for the dollar. A few pessimistic looks the expected decline 2.5% in orders for durable goods in the U.S. Analysts of BTA Securities believe that the data will exceed forecasts by providing additional support to the national currency. - Prices for oil and industrial metals today are moving in different directions. Futures for Brent crude oil decreased by 0.5% after the API data showed an increase in fuel stocks in the U.S., reflecting weak demand for petroleum products in the country. Industrial metals yet retain a positive trend due to favorable forecasts of the leading investment banks. In Shanghai futures price for the supply of copper is growing at 1.5%. Gold now trades slightly below yesterday's closing price of $ 1,524 per ounce. Lack of consensus in the euro area on solving problems in Greece supported the demand for precious metals. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 6.1 6.2 Sell +1.6 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 442.0 452.0 Sell +2.3 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 198.0 226.0 Sell +14.1 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 8.9 13.6 Buy +52.8 HALYK BANK KASE 320.8 474.0 Buy +47.8 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 185.2 237.0 Buy +27.9 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE n/a 237.0 Buy - BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 500.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 19.7 22.7 Hold +15 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 17,000.0 20,062.0 Hold +18 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.95 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,235.0 1,427.0 Buy +16 ENRC LSE 820.5 1,216.0 Buy +48 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 2.2 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 3.6 3.3 Hold -9 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,300.0 33,825.0 Buy +75 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 40.5 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-05-25]