Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for May 19, 2011

/IRBIS, May 19, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for May 19, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - The news background before opening of trading on KASE develops positive. Some weakening of the dollar, the return of demand for metals and oil, as well as the growth of key U.S. and European indices will improve sentiment on the domestic market. Today increase in share prices of mining companies is likely, as the principal beneficiaries of the weak dollar and higher commodity prices. The recovery, according to BTA Securities, of unreasonably cheapened common stocks of Halyk Bank is possible. - Trading in Asia today is in a multidirectional manner. The Japanese market is down today in response to the GDP data for the first quarter of 2011, testifying to the return of the Japanese economy into recession. GDP fell by 3.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami, and on revised data for the previous quarter the economy shrank by 3%. Thus Japan's economy has contracted two consecutive quarters. The Chinese market has been growing on the findings of investors that the Fed will maintain a soft monetary policy for a long time, and the Chinese economy is showing steady growth. Japan's Nikkei index today reduced by 0.4%, Chinese Hang Seng adds 0.8%, Shanghai - is reduced by 0.1%. - Today, Asian investors prefer to buy euro, which adds 0.26%, approaching the 1.43 mark. Pressure on the dollar has had a protocol of the Fed meeting published yesterday, which has not made clear on the future of monetary policy control, reinforcing market expectations that rate hikes may be held no earlier than 4 quarters of 2011. Dollar sales are under some influence of the Goldman Sachs forecast on weakening U.S. dollar to 1.45 and 1.50 for 3 and 6 months respectively. The situation connected with debt restructuring in Greece is becoming confusing. On one hand up to the two-day meeting of EU finance ministers and representatives of the IMF was made possible "soft" restructuring, on the other hand ECB officials said yesterday that rollover is excluded, since it may lead to another global financial crisis. Today, waiting for data on the primary applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S., whose number, according to expert forecasts, dropped by 14 th. up to 420 thousand. Increase in sales of secondary residences is expected in April at 2% versus 3.7% a month earlier. - On the commodity markets today, there is some stabilization after a significant increase in the previous day. Quotes of oil are still supported by positive data on oil reserves in the U.S. Futures for Brent is currently increasing by 0.5%. Copper futures in New York added only 0.15%, in Shanghai there was a more substantial increase, but is probably wins back yesterday's rise in prices in London. Gold prices today were virtually unchanged, holding at current levels of uncertainty concerning the decision of the Greek debt problems and signs of slowing world economy. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 6.4 6.2 Sell -2.4 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 458.0 452.0 Sell -1.3 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 198.0 226.0 Sell +14.1 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.0 13.6 Buy +50.8 HALYK BANK KASE 333.0 474.0 Buy +42.3 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 237.0 Buy +40.7 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE - 237.0 Buy n/a BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 497.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 20.7 22.7 Hold +10 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 18,050.0 20,062.0 Hold +11 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.98 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,256.0 1,427.0 Hold +14 ENRC LSE 841.0 1,216.0 Buy +45 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 2.0 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 3.7 3.3 Hold -11 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,200.0 33,825.0 Buy +76 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 43.3 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-05-19]