Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for May 16, 2011

/IRBIS, May 16, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for May 16, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - The news background before opening of trading on KASE develops moderately negative. Indicators point to a continuation of "bearish" sentiment on the stock market. On Friday, U.S. indexes fell, on Monday - Asian markets, where the largest decline is noted for raw-materials producers. In the view of analysts of BTA Securities, in Europe the weak dynamics of today will be shown by the shares of domestic mining companies, which could adversely affect the mood of the local market. Besides, in the short term shares with weak fundamental characteristics remain under pressure, in particular, shares of the Bank CenterCredit and KKB. - Today, the major Asian indices are down amid fears of a default in Greece. Friday's rally of the dollar, even amid strong eurozone data on GDP for the first quarter, today has a negative impact on the dynamics of commodity markets and shares of mining companies. Quotations of the world's largest mining company BHP Billiton Ltd. in Sydney fell by 1.3%, Aluminum Corp. lose 2.3% of the cost in Hong Kong. Japan's Nikkei drops by 0.8%, Hang Seng - 1.1%, Shanghai - by 0.3%. Today, the euro/dollar continues its downward spiral, losing 0.2% and trading below $1.41. Concerns about the ability of European finance ministers to calm the markets on the situation in Greece had a significant pressure on the single currency. Today the discussion of two critical issues is expected: the possible extension of Greek debt and provision of additional financial assistance to the country. Arrest of the head of the IMF, an adherent in assisting European nations is likely to complicate the process of making the final decision. Much will depend on the position of Germany, which insists that Greece will be able to get support only with more strict compliance and enforcement of obligations under previously granted loan of 110 billion euros. Today also the data on inflation in the eurozone is expected. According to experts, the inflation rate in April was 2.8% in annual terms, and the base CPI accelerated to 1.5%. In this regard, it's possible to return to the topic of interest rates of the ECB. - On the commodity markets on Monday multidirectional movement of quotations is observed. Oil prices are falling in the range of 0.5% in response to a strengthening U.S. dollar, meaning lower demand for oil as an instrument of hedging currency risks. The cost of copper futures in Shanghai, by contrast, is growing by 0.4% with support of Euro zone data on the significant growth of the economies of France, Germany and the Eurozone itself in the first quarter of 2011. The limiting factor for the metal is dollar strengthening. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 6.6 6.2 Sell -5.3 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 469.7 452.0 Sell +3.8 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 210.0 226.0 Sell +7.6 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.5 13.6 Buy +43.2 HALYK BANK KASE 355.0 474.0 Buy +33.5 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 237.0 Buy +40.7 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE - 237.0 Buy - BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 515.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 20.8 22.7 Hold +9 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 19,400.0 20,062.0 Hold +3 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.97 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,213.0 1,427.0 Buy +18 ENRC LSE 835.5 1,216.0 Buy +46 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 1.9 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 3.8 3.3 Hold -13 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,190.0 33,825.0 Buy +76 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 43.3 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-05-16]