Market reviews and recommendations of BCC Invest JSC (Kazakhstan) analysts for May 13, 2011

/IRBIS. May 13, 2011/ - BCC Invest JSC has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, market reviews and investment ideas for May 13, 2011. The analysts are expecting a mixed and multidimensional opening on KASE on ambiguous exterior background. During the day, the KASE index stock quotations dynamics will be also positive and the KASE index would probably end the day with moderate increase. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" expect the following developments in international markets today: - ENRC released its operational results for the first quarter of 2011. On May 12, ENRC has published operational results and the interim management report for the first three months of 2011. Key Facts: Production remains on an effective level of full capacity utilization. In comparison with the similar period of 2010, production of commodity ferrochrome increased by 4.2%, iron ore pellets - by 2.6%, aluminum - by 37.8%. There is also a growth in production of cobalt and copper; financial performance has improved due to increased production and a good pricing environment, adjusted for the increase in production costs, progress in implementing the investment program in the division of ferroalloys in Aktobe, anode plant in the division of aluminum and alumina in Pavlodar, increasing production capacity for alumina, and enter a new unit, an additional $ 0.5 billion in revolving credit, strong financial position: $ 2.1 billion in cash and $ 1.6 billion in total debts. According to JSC "BCC Invest" analysts, statements negatively affect stock price, as it reflects current market expectations. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" leave its current recommendation to "hold" with a target price of ?10.80 per share. - Norilsk Nickel on the results of 2010 could pay 180 rubles per share. OJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel (RTS: GMKN) may pay up to the 2010 dividend in the amount of 180 rubles per share, representing a 14% lower rate than in 2009, the company said. A recommendation on Thursday was given by the Board of MMC. Total payments may amount to 34.313 billion rubles. In 2009, MMC has paid 210 rubles per share. Total payments amounted to $ 1.325 billion. In the near future, the dividends will be considered by the board of directors of the company, which will give its recommendation to vote at the AGM. Norilsk Nickel "makes clear that the board recommended amount paid in accordance with the dividend policy. Dividend Policy Nornikel involves payments of $ 20-25% of net profit. MMC has not yet published data on net profits in 2010 (IFRS reporting company under RAS is unconsolidated and takes into account only the activities of the Polar Division of Norilsk Nickel). But, as declared by the general director of Norilsk Nickel, Vladimir Strzhalkovsky at a meeting with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in January of this year, net profit of MMC up to 2010 will exceed $ 5 billion. RUSAL welcomed the decision of management " Norilsk to pay, but unhappy with the size. "We have always advocated a dividend as the most equitable way to distribute the profits among the shareholders. In this case, we believe that Norilsk Nickel has the ability to pay far greater dividends, based on the profit level, as shown by in 2010. Nevertheless, management in conjunction with the "Interros" chose the option to repurchase shares, which allows management to vote these shares in order to "Interros", - told Interfax the representative of Rusal. Management of Norilsk Nickel earlier said that he considers the payment of dividends for 2010 unlikely, given that the incentive program implemented by the shareholders in the form of repurchase its own shares. Buy back a total of $ 4.5 billion will require Nornikel costly than paying dividends, even at 50% of net profit. Other opinions were expressed, Vladimir Potanin, owner of the largest shareholder in MMC, holding "Interros". According to him, "Norilsk Nickel" can pay dividends, despite the cost of buy back of $ 4.5 billion Board of Norilsk Nickel reviewed and approved the draft annual report for 2010, annual buhotchetnost under RAS in 2010, and reports on the outcome of financial and business and marketing activities for the I quarter of 2011, the results of the supply business unit for the I quarter of 2011. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" believe that the news is neutral for the stock price and depository receipts of MMC Norilsk Nickel, as the possibility of paying dividends was already voiced in the media. - Severstal may pay 3.9 rubles per share for the I quarter. The Board of Directors of OJCS Severstal (RTS: CHMF) recommended the shareholders to approve dividends for the I quarter of 2011 amounting to 3.9 rubles per share, the company said. Annual meeting of shareholders was scheduled for June 27. Record closure date - May 22, inclusive. Using the value of the share capital, total dividend for the quarter, it can send about 4.2 billion rubles (about $152 million). As previously reported, the Board of Directors of Severstal at the meeting recommended the shareholders to approve dividends for 2010 at a rate of 2 rubles 42 kopeikas per share (about 2.4 billion rubles total, or about $84.8 million). Previously, shareholders of Severstal approved an interim dividend for the first 9 months of 2010 in the amount of 4.29 rubles per share (total - 7.3 billion rubles, or about $237 million). According to the results of 2009, Severstal had not paid dividends in connection with a loss. In the II quarter of 2010 the company entered the lucrative level for $ 192 million of net profit under IFRS against a loss of $ 785 million quarter earlier. The authorized capital of Severstal is 10 million 77.013 million rubles. It is divided into 1,7,701,335 ordinary shares of 1 penny. Analysts of JSC "BCC Invest" believe that this news is moderately positive for the price of stocks and depository receipts of OJCS Severstal. The analysts of "BCC Invest" are expecting the following events on international markets today: - Today Russia expects to publish data for fiscal balances and the monetary base in narrow definition. - Today in France 11:30 (AST) will be published data on GDP, and at 12:45 (AST) - on the payrolls of agricultural sector and on wages. At 12:00 (AST) in Germany and at 14:00 (AST) in Italy GDP data will be published. At 15:00 (AST) - data on the Eurozone GDP. - Today, in the United States at 18:30 (AST) data on the consumer price index will be published, at 19:55 (AST) - on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan, and 20:00 (AST) - Durable Goods. Today the reports of Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Telefonica SA, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, Credit Agricole SA, Assicurazioni Generali SpA, ThyssenKrupp AG and others, will be heard. Analysts of BCC Invest JSC are giving the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in internal market: --------------------------------------------------------------- Closure Target Potential, Issuer Code price price % Recommenda- tion ---------------- ------- -------- ------ ---------- ----------- Kazkommertsbank KKGB 435 583 +34.02 Neutral KKGBp 210 196 -6.67 Neutral Halyk Bank HSBK 341 415 +21.70 Hold BankCenterCredit CCBN 500.01 646 +29.20 Hold Tsesnabank TSBN 865 1,030 +19.08 Neutral EP KMG RDGZ 19,150 20,500 +7.05 Hold Kazakhmys PLC GB_KZMS 2,950.00 3,870 +31.19 Buy ENRC PLC GB_ENRC 2,040 2,550 +25.00 Hold Kazakhtelecom KZTK 19,200 Review KZTKp 9,000 9,300 +3.33 Hold MREK MREK 1,100 1,130 +2.73 Hold --------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-05-13]