Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for May 13, 2011

/IRBIS, May 13, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for May 13, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - News background before opening of trading on KASE develops moderately negative. On the one hand indicators point to a continuation of "bearish" sentiment on the stock market. At the same time, prices for industrial metals are growing today. In the view of analysts BTA Securities, investors in the domestic market will be waiting for clearer signals, so the activity is only possible on certain instruments, trading volume could decline. In the short term, under pressure from the remaining stocks of commodity companies, as well as stocks with a weak fundamental characteristics, of Bank CenterCredit and KKB. - Despite the positive outcome of trading in the U.S., Asian markets fell today in response to falling profits of Japanese companies after the devastating earthquake and the next increase in reserve requirements for commercial banks in China. Taiyo Yuden Co, the Japanese manufacturer of electronic parts for automobiles, posted annual losses of over twice the market forecasts. Japan Steel Works reported that the annual net profit falls 30%, sending, thus, quotes its shares down 5%. MRI in China increased for the fifth consecutive time since the beginning of the year. Reduced demand for risky assets is observed today in all major Asian sites: Nikkei drops by 1.1%, Hang Seng - by 0.4%. - Today, the euro/dollar declines by 0.32%, settled at around 1.42, on the eve of the macro-data from the U.S., which, according to experts, will show an acceleration of inflation to 3.1% in annual terms, against 2.7% a month earlier. Meanwhile, growth in underlying CPI (excluding prices for food and fuel) is projected at 0.2% and 1.3% in monthly and annual terms, respectively. Such data could support the dollar by increasing the pressure on the Fed's relatively tighter monetary policy needed to fulfill its mandate to ensure price stability. Prior to the release of statistics from the United States can support the euro projected increase in Eurozone GDP by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2011, supported by economic growth in Germany to 0,9%. Thus, the expected volatility in the range of motion of a pair of 1.41 - 1.425. In general, we believe that day will be for the U.S. dollar. - On the commodity markets today multidirectional dynamics is shown. Oil prices decline modestly in response to speculation that the high price of fuel in the U.S. has a negative impact on economic growth. The cost of copper futures in Shanghai, by contrast, grows by 1%, while in New York - by 0.4%. Supports the copper quotations the assumption that China could slow down and pace of rate increases, shifting the emphasis on MRI and strengthen the yuan. Raising rates could slow economic growth and cause the influx of speculative capital. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 6.6 6.2 Sell -5.3 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 435.0 452.0 Sell +3.9 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 210.0 226.0 Sell +7.6 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.4 13.6 Buy +44.7 HALYK BANK KASE 341.0 474.0 Buy +39.0 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 237.0 Buy +40.7 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE - 237.0 Buy - BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 500.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 21.0 22.7 Hold +8 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 19,150.0 20,062.0 Hold +5 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.98 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,229.0 1,427.0 Buy +16 ENRC LSE 840.0 1,216.0 Buy +45 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 1.8 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 3.8 3.3 Sell -13 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,200.0 33,825.0 Buy +76 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 43.3 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-05-13]