Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for May 12, 2011

/IRBIS, May 12, 2011/ - JSC BTA Bank's Subsidiary organization BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for May 12, 2011. According to the report, analysts note that the premarket on world markets is composed as follows: - The news background was negative before KASE trade opening due to appreciable fall of oil prices and metals on the concern of Chinese monetary policy toughening, Greece debt problems and dollar strengthening. Shares of Kazakhsmys, ENRC, EP KMG will be under pressure. It's possible to be sold for shares of BankCenterCredit and Kazkommertzbank, despite of the Eurobonds placement. - Reducing the demand for risky assets is observed today in all major Asian sites: Nikkei drops 0.63%, Shanghai and Hang Seng lose 0.4% and 0.83% respectively. Fears of further monetary tightening in China against the backdrop of rising inflationary pressures continue to scare investors. Strengthening of the dollar and the subsequent reduction in the cost of commodities, particularly oil and metals, led to massive sales of shares of mining companies. - Today, the euro restores some of the lost positions of the previous day, adding 0.23% and trading at 1.4224. Possible catastrophic consequences in case of restructuring of the Greek debt forced the European authorities to think about providing additional support to Greece, a discussion on which will take place next week. On the market speculation that European leaders can increase the size of the provided credit package of 110 billion dollars was spread. Such rumors have suspended panic among investors. However, development of additional programs will take about a month and only after a detailed assessment of the financial condition of Greece, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the country needed to demonstrate compliance with the conditions of an existing package of care, especially in parts of the reforms. Meanwhile, expectations for an increase in ECB rates, underpinned by improving economic situation in the eurozone as a whole, continue to keep the euro afloat. Today positive data on U.S. retail sales and the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits is expected. In Europe, statistics on industrial production will be published. - Mixed sentiment rules on commodity markets. Industrial metals lost in the price of the Chinese factor, since a further rate hike in China, according to market participants, may adversely affect the consumption of raw materials in the country. The cost of copper futures in Shanghai decreased by 2.8% and aluminum prices lost more than 1.5%. Precious metals are in demand from investors who are concerned about the situation with the debt problems of the eurozone and high inflationary expectations in China. Gold adds 0.32% and is traded at $1,506 per ounce. Some weakening of the dollar has a positive effect on the cost of oil futures. Brent crude oil becomes more expensive today by 1% to $113.8 per barrel. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Last. Target price Recommen- Poten- Issuer SE price for 2011 dation tial, % -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Banks ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 6.5 6.2 Sell -4.6 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 475.0 452.0 Sell -4.8 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 210.0 226.0 Sell +7.6 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 9.4 13.6 Buy +44.7 HALYK BANK KASE 345.0 474.0 Buy +37.4 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 237.0 Buy +40.7 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE - 237.0 Buy n/a BANK-CENTER-CREDIT KASE 495.0 - Neutral n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Oil-and-Gas ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 21.7 22.7 Hold +4 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 19,401.0 20,062.0 Hold +3 BMB MUNAI AMEX 0.98 n/a Review n/a -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Metallurgy: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,265.0 1,427.0 Hold +13 ENRC LSE 862.0 1,216.0 Buy +41 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 1.9 n/a Review n/a URANIUM ONE LSE 4.0 3.3 Sell -16 -------------------------- ---- -------- ------------ --------- ------- Companies with small capital: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 19,200.0 33,825.0 Buy +76 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 43.3 n/a Review n/a ----------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Irbis Agency doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2011-05-12]